美国失业救济激增，招聘冷却无解，美联储按兵不动

Economic Indicators - The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the U.S. has surged to 1.956 million, the highest level in three and a half years, indicating a significant increase in unemployment and prolonged job searches [1] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits have also risen to 248,000, marking the highest level in nearly ten months, suggesting a deteriorating job market [1] Employment Market Concerns - Despite seemingly healthy non-farm payroll data in May, underlying issues such as low-wage job dominance, stagnant labor participation rates, and reduced working hours reveal vulnerabilities in the U.S. economy's sustainability [3] - The increase in repeat applicants for unemployment benefits highlights a growing challenge for American workers in finding suitable jobs, indicating a shift from voluntary unemployment to a lack of available positions [4] Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current interest rates without making any changes, reflecting a lack of decisive action in response to the employment market's instability [3] - The Fed's inaction may exacerbate market volatility, as consumer confidence could decline if the job market continues to weaken [3][6] Inflation and Economic Policy - Current inflation indicators, such as the producer price index, appear stable, but there are concerns that rising costs will eventually impact consumer prices, complicating monetary and fiscal policy responses [6] - The ongoing tariff policies are seen as a double-edged sword, failing to effectively address trade deficits while simultaneously undermining domestic employment and consumer confidence [6] Political Response and Market Sentiment - The political response to the emerging economic weakness has been slow, with both major parties focused on election preparations rather than addressing economic challenges, leading to a lack of effective policy signals [7] - Following the release of unemployment data, both the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields fell, indicating investor skepticism regarding the Fed's future policy direction amid a challenging economic landscape [9] Structural Economic Issues - The U.S. economy is facing a dangerous path characterized by policy confusion, economic stagnation, and market distrust, with potential long-term structural cracks that could lead to a systemic crisis [9][10] - The pressing question is not merely about inflation or monetary policy, but rather the sustainability of the American middle class in the face of these challenges [10]