华桥汇利（中国）投资基金管理有限公司：美国非农数据藏隐忧，九月降息或成真

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, the lowest since February, but still above the market expectation of 130,000 [1] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, alleviating concerns about a sharp slowdown in the labor market [1] Group 2: Economic Concerns - Chief Economist Samuel Tombs warned that the current employment data may mask deeper issues, citing a significant downward revision of March's non-farm payrolls from 224,000 to 120,000 [3] - Tombs predicts that May's employment data may be revised down to around 100,000 in the upcoming August report, with an average downward revision of 30,000 since the beginning of 2023 [3] Group 3: Industry-Specific Employment Trends - Employment prospects in retail, wholesale, transportation, and logistics are bleak, with an expected reduction of about 50,000 jobs by year-end due to diminishing pre-tariff effects [5] - The NFIB reported that small business hiring intentions have dropped to the lowest level since May 2020, indicating potential future weakness in the job market [6] Group 4: Public Sector Employment - A wave of layoffs in the public sector is anticipated, with 59,000 federal jobs already eliminated and a reduction of 22,000 in May [8] - The unemployment rate is projected to peak at 4.8% by December due to these trends [8]