2.5 万亿美元估值！方舟投资揭秘 SpaceX 的星际商业帝国如何炼成？

Core Insights - ARK Invest predicts that SpaceX's enterprise value could reach $2.5 trillion by 2030, representing a more than 7-fold increase from its estimated $350 billion valuation at the end of 2024 [1] - The valuation model incorporates "interstellar variables" such as Mars colonization and orbital resources, reflecting a shift in how the space economy is perceived [1] Group 1: Business Model and Cash Flow - The core of ARK's valuation model is based on SpaceX's unique "business flywheel," which starts with cash flow generated from reusable Falcon rockets, leading to a self-reinforcing growth cycle [2] - As Falcon 9's reuse increases from 15 to 50 times, the cost per launch could drop from $62 million to below $20 million, enhancing market competitiveness [2] - SpaceX is projected to capture 52% of global commercial launch orders in 2024, generating $12 billion in revenue, which supports the expansion of Starlink [2] Group 2: Starlink Revenue Potential - By 2035, ARK forecasts that Starlink could generate $300 billion in annual revenue, capturing 15% of global communication spending [3] - The revenue model is based on penetration into consumer, enterprise, and government markets, with significant contributions expected from remote areas and industrial applications [3] - The U.S. Department of Defense has already signed a $15 billion long-term contract, indicating the potential for government market revenue [3] Group 3: Mars Development and Technological Advancements - Mars development is integrated into the valuation model, with a key turning point set for 2028 when 30% of Starlink's revenue will be allocated to Mars initiatives [4] - SpaceX aims to produce 100 Starships annually, reducing the cost per launch to $50 million, enabling 100 Mars missions by 2030 [4] - The introduction of Optimus robots is expected to automate construction on Mars, significantly improving efficiency and reducing costs [5] Group 4: Orbital Resources and Future Valuation - ARK's model includes "orbital assets" as a core valuation component, viewing the Starlink satellite network as valuable "digital real estate" [7] - The deployment of 42,000 Starlink satellites will support various applications, including autonomous vehicles and IoT connectivity, expanding SpaceX's future value chain [7] - The valuation of SpaceX is projected to extend beyond current revenue, indicating a new growth cycle in the space economy, with a potential valuation of $2.5 trillion by 2030 [7]