商业秘密｜补贴洪流中的咖啡业：巨头收割，小店挣扎

Core Viewpoint - The coffee industry is experiencing a significant disruption due to an intense price war among delivery platforms, leading to a stark divide where large coffee chains thrive while small brands and cafes struggle to survive [1][5][10] Group 1: Impact on Large Coffee Chains - Major coffee chains are benefiting from the ongoing delivery subsidy war, with sales volumes skyrocketing. For instance, Kudi Coffee's sales reached 80 million cups on June 2 and surpassed 100 million cups by June 9 [3][4] - The average monthly sales for Luckin Coffee are projected to be 250 million cups, indicating a substantial increase in demand driven by aggressive pricing strategies [3] - The price of fast coffee has dropped significantly, with some products available for as low as 5.9 yuan due to various promotional discounts [2][3] Group 2: Challenges for Small Coffee Brands - Small coffee shops and independent brands are facing severe challenges, with reports of sales halving due to the competitive pricing of larger chains [5][8] - Many small brands are unable to compete with the scale and pricing of major chains, leading to a loss of market share and customer base [8][10] - The cost structure for small coffee shops is unsustainable under the current pricing pressures, with some reporting losses on each cup sold after accounting for delivery fees and marketing subsidies [6][7] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The ongoing subsidy war is reshaping consumer behavior, with many consumers now prioritizing low-cost coffee options over quality [10][13] - The market is witnessing a consolidation phase, where smaller brands may be forced out due to their inability to compete, while larger chains continue to expand their market presence [9][10] - Experts suggest that small brands need to differentiate themselves through unique products and services to survive in this competitive landscape [13]