中国咖啡产业报告-2025 China Coffee Industry Report 世界中餐业联合会&黑峪投资 2026年1月 Copyright ©2017, Black Valley Capital, Proprietary and Confidential 团队投资案例 2025年全球咖啡行业十大事件 Copyright ©2026, Black Valley Capital, Proprietary and Confidential 1. 《欧盟零毁林法案》(EUDR) 落地： 绿色合规成为全球贸易准入证，重溯上游供应链成本。 2. ICE 咖啡期货创 47 年新高： 极端气候叠加海运震荡，倒逼下游品牌进入"长协+自建工厂"博弈。 3. 瑞幸 30,000 店： 全球单市场门店规模第一，中国咖啡"平权"时代终结。 4. 星巴克中国引入博裕资本： 控股权易主，外资巨头开启"中国合伙人"本土化控股模式。 5. 史上最大咖啡并购案完成： Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) 以约180亿美元完成对 JDE Peet's 的收购。 6. 雀巢"分子重组"无咖啡因咖啡技术突破 7. "咖啡+茶"席卷东 ...

与店有关的事 上周，茶咖品牌们在门店扩展、战略调整、场景创新、出海布局、加盟政策等方面积极布局。 国内门店持续扩张。瑞幸开店190家；库迪国内开店75家；肯悦咖啡北京第100家门店亮相南锣鼓巷；厝 内小眷村在南京、镇江、常州、杭州等城市开出9家新店，值得注意的是，该品牌此前经历了一段收缩 期，2021年至2024年，门店从500家减少到57家。 部分品牌在进行门店调整。针对乐乐茶全面退出郑州市场的传言，乐乐茶相关负责人告诉茶咖观察，品 牌并未退出郑州市场，只是在区域内进行门店调整，目前正在筹备新型门店，年后将重新回归。 与此同时，近期茶颜悦色母公司在北京、深圳和上海密集招人。茶颜悦色方面回复称，这是常规的人员 储备，如有新的开店计划，会在官方账号和大家分享。 茶咖品牌们也在拓展新的开店场景。喜茶全国首店"HEYTEACRAFT喜茶工艺"于广州石牌桥以围挡亮 相，目前新店的具体产品形态尚未公布。 茶咖出海也在稳定推进。库迪上周在加拿大、德国等地开了8家新店；冰淳茶饮全球签约门店超4000 家，海外门店1000余家；茶百道与新加坡知名商超品牌思家客签署战略合作协议，双方将共同推动茶百 道在新加坡市场的加速落地；茉 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the industry, highlighting a favorable outlook for the tourism and leisure sectors due to government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption and service spending [1][35]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of domestic tourism, with expected growth rates of 12% in revenue and 18% in visitor numbers for Q1-Q3 2025, driven by sustained leisure travel demand and the rise of experiential consumption [1][35]. - The overall tourism market is projected to grow by over 10% for the year, supported by government initiatives such as promoting spring and autumn travel and issuing cultural tourism consumption vouchers [1][35]. - Key companies recommended for investment include China Duty Free Group, Jin Jiang Hotels, Shouqi Group, Tongcheng Travel, and Ctrip Group, alongside high-growth tea beverage stocks like Gu Ming and low-valuation restaurant growth stocks like Green Tea Group [1][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Restaurant Sector - Offline consumption is gradually recovering, with Q4 restaurant revenue showing steady growth, achieving 519.9 billion and 605.7 billion yuan in October and November 2025, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 4.99% and 4.40% [7][10]. - Leading restaurant companies are recovering faster than the industry average, with significant revenue increases noted for major players [10][14]. 2. Tea Beverage Sector - The tea beverage sector has seen a surge in same-store sales growth due to delivery subsidies, with leading brands like Gu Ming and Hu Shang A Yi maintaining high growth rates of 15-20% [7][10][14]. - The number of new store openings has doubled compared to 2024, indicating aggressive expansion strategies among top brands [16]. 3. OTA (Online Travel Agency) - The recovery of outbound travel demand is evident, with strong performance in Southeast Asia routes and a notable increase in visitor numbers to Japan and South Korea [20][24]. - The report highlights the long-term profit potential of leading OTA companies like Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel, driven by the ongoing recovery in leisure travel demand and improved commission rates [24][25]. 4. Hotel Sector - The hotel industry is expected to see a stable RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) in Q4, with a year-on-year growth of 6-8% in room supply [29][30]. - Major hotel chains like Shouqi and Jin Jiang are projected to maintain or improve their performance, benefiting from cost reductions and increased guest traffic during holiday periods [29][30][31]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the travel sector, particularly companies involved in OTA, hotels, and scenic spots, as they are likely to benefit from favorable government policies [1][35]. - Additionally, it recommends investing in high-growth tea beverage stocks and undervalued restaurant growth stocks, indicating a diversified approach to capitalizing on the recovery in consumer spending [1][35].

Core Insights - The retail industry in China is experiencing intense competition, with cross-industry integration becoming a key strategy for brands to achieve growth in a saturated market [1] - Brands are increasingly moving beyond traditional boundaries, utilizing cross-industry innovation to explore new consumer demands and retail formats [1] Group 1: Cross-Industry Innovations - Kudi Coffee has entered the fast-food sector by launching hot meal options in select Beijing stores, aiming to enhance store efficiency and customer traffic through a "coffee + hot food" model [2][3] - Armani has opened its first restaurant in Beijing, offering a unique dining experience that combines luxury branding with a relatively affordable average spend of 354 yuan per person [4][5] - Haidilao has launched a new brand, "Haini," focusing on beef hot pot, as part of its multi-brand strategy to find new growth avenues beyond traditional hot pot offerings [6] Group 2: Market Adaptations - Ningji has introduced grilled sausage products priced at 4 yuan each to complement its lemon tea offerings, aiming to increase customer spending and overall sales [7] - Haidilao has also ventured into the bakery sector with its brand "Schwasua," offering products primarily priced under 10 yuan, leveraging its supply chain advantages [8] - Prada has opened its first independent restaurant in Asia, integrating Italian and Chinese culinary traditions, marking a significant step in luxury brand engagement in the dining sector [9][10] Group 3: Strategic Expansions - Hailan Home has established a beverage company to enter the bottled water market, responding to declining profits in its core clothing business [11] - Zuli Jian has opened an organic food store, selling frozen dumplings at competitive prices, as part of its strategy to diversify and address financial challenges [12] - Wuliangye has launched a new craft beer brand, "Fenghuolun," incorporating its traditional liquor-making techniques, reflecting a trend of traditional alcohol companies seeking new growth opportunities [14] Group 4: Industry Trends - The cross-industry trend in retail is characterized by deeper integration of core capabilities rather than simple category additions, as seen with Haidilao and Wuliangye [17] - Brands are targeting specific consumer groups more effectively, such as Kudi Coffee's focus on all-day dining and Zuli Jian's appeal to older consumers [17] - Luxury brands are using dining experiences to convey lifestyle aesthetics, while mass-market brands are leveraging cross-industry strategies to overcome growth challenges [18]

"这还是我认识的瑞幸吗？""高级得让我陌生。" 最近，瑞幸上海花园洋房店悄然走红，拱廊、花窗、铁艺楼梯、黄铜壁灯……老上海风情拉满。 强烈反差引发年轻人争相打卡，"一杯9.9元咖啡硬是喝出了民国公馆的贵气"。 这家店到底什么样？咖啡卖得贵吗？ 01 "9.9元咖啡喝出999元的贵气" 瑞幸花园洋房店走红上海 最近，一家"看起来不像瑞幸"的花园洋房主题店，在上海悄然走红。 它位于览海国际广场，和大家印象中主打快取的瑞幸门店不同，两层空间呈现出高级且华丽的老上海风情。 这种颠覆性的风格转变，迅速引爆社交平台。门店一开业便冲上大众点评咖啡新店榜首位，网友争相打卡： "拿捏上海腔调！简直是最美瑞幸！" "瑞幸升咖了，十元咖啡的含金量还在上升。" 更有人玩梗调侃："重生之我在1930年喝瑞幸""9.9元的咖啡喝出了999元的贵气"。 拱形门廊、雕花铁艺、彩绘玻璃窗、复古印花墙纸与黄铜壁灯……走进店内，浓郁的"老钱风"扑面而来，仿佛瞬间穿越至三十年代中西交融的沪上公馆。 门店分为两层，一楼设点单吧台及少量散座，延续高效出品动线；二楼则被打造为"咖啡共享休息室"，划分开放阅读区与半封闭自习区。 瑞幸标志性的产品海报被装进复 ...

New Product Launches - DQ and My Little Pony launched two new products: "Triple Berry Rainbow Cereal Blizzard" and "Miracle Magic Pony Cake Ice Cream" [2][4] - Wanglaoji collaborated with WAKUKU to release a colorful gift box containing 11 cans of Wanglaoji's 310ml beverage, priced at 139.9 yuan [4][5] - Heima launched a new "Rice Drink" made from high-quality Wuchang rice, suitable for breakfast and sports [4][5] - Let Tea introduced two new juice teas: Turmeric Lemon Tea and Three Grapefruit Juice Tea, with over 50% NFC juice content and no added sugar [5] - Joyoung launched a new soy milk product with a simple formula, containing 3.3g of protein per box [6] - Luckin Coffee partnered with the popular IP "Mo Dao Zu Shi" to launch non-coffee products, including Snow Tea and Strawberry Tea [6][7] - Yuanqi Forest entered the herbal tea market with a new product that features six herbal ingredients and no artificial additives [7] - Luxi River and Nestlé KitKat released a gift box containing "Oat Crunch Chocolate Peach Crisp" in two flavors [8] - Wei Chuan launched a new drink called "Horse Success Water," made from lychee and bamboo sugar [8] Industry Events - CoCo announced its expansion into 66 cities across 19 provinces in China since June 2024, focusing on lower-tier markets [11] - South Korean company Samjin Foods plans to increase its investment in China through a partnership with a local company for comprehensive operations [11] - RIMOWA released a new advertising campaign featuring actor Xu Guanghan to celebrate the Year of the Horse [11] - Burger King's online ordering system experienced a crash during peak times, leading to customer complaints [12][14] - Alipay's "Tap to Pay" feature surpassed 100 million daily transactions, expanding its application across various sectors [12] - Bawang Tea upgraded its 桂馥兰香 tea base with seasonal osmanthus flowers [12] - The Beijing Chocolate Museum opened, featuring a temperature-controlled environment to preserve exhibits [16] - IKEA announced the closure of seven stores in China starting February 2, 2026, after a comprehensive review of customer touchpoints [12] - Nestlé recalled infant formula in several European countries due to quality issues with a supplier's ingredient [17] - Muyuan Foods appointed Gao Dong as the new Chief Financial Officer [12] Investment and Financing - Kinotek raised $2 million for its sports analysis platform, which is already in use by MLB teams and top gyms [18] - Nutritional raw material producer Nuoyun Bio completed a Series A financing round with investments from multiple firms [18] - Bain Capital acquired the parent company of South Korean brand Andar for 216.6 billion KRW (approximately 1.046 billion yuan) [20] - Weiyuan Synthetic secured nearly 300 million yuan in a new financing round to accelerate its product development [18] - Only Group acquired a majority stake in British menswear brand Drake's [18] - Marubeni's US subsidiary acquired the Jacobson Group, which owns several footwear brands [18] - Acai Yogurt was confirmed to be acquired by Mei Yogurt, with the founding team stepping down [18] - FrieslandCampina completed the acquisition of a US whey protein company to enhance its production capacity [18] - 24 Hour Fitness's founder Mark Mastrov returned to lead the company after a buyout [18] - Fairfax Financial Holdings increased its stake in Under Armour to approximately 22% [18] Food and Beverage Trends - Uni-President launched a new 1L juice product line featuring grape and peach flavors, emphasizing zero fat and real fruit juice [25] - Yili signed actress Ma Yili as a brand ambassador for its marketing campaign for the Year of the Horse [25] - O'MILLS opened its first store in South China, focusing on naturally fermented and healthy food options [25] - Wei Family's music bistro opened in Xi'an, quickly gaining popularity on social media [25] - Black Sesame's controlling shareholder changed to Guangxi Travel Health Industry Group [28] - RIO launched a jelly alcohol product in two flavors, emphasizing a unique drinking experience [28] - Samyang collaborated with KFC to launch two new noodle products, priced at 19.9 yuan per cup [28] - Yakult introduced a limited edition packaging for the New Year, featuring auspicious colors and messages [28] - Grandpa's Farm submitted a listing application in Hong Kong [28] - Nongfu Spring released a zodiac commemorative glass bottle water, with 160,000 sets available through a lottery [31]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The coffee industry remains highly prosperous with brands actively opening new stores, although there is a caution regarding short-term data volatility due to the seasonal downturn [3] - The tea beverage sector is under slight pressure as it enters the off-season, with a trend of subsidy reductions expected despite the government's investigation into delivery platforms [3] - The e-commerce sector continues to face challenges, showing lackluster performance due to the domestic consumption environment [3] - Music streaming platforms are highlighted as valuable internet assets driven by domestic demand, with a recommendation to focus on music subscription platforms [3] - The virtual asset and trading platform market is experiencing limited catalysts, with cryptocurrency prices remaining volatile [3] - The automotive service sector is seeing expansion, with new 4S stores being opened by Zhongsheng Group in various cities [3] - The internet healthcare sector is gaining attention with OpenAI's launch of "ChatGPT Health," suggesting a focus on this area [3] - The AI and cloud sectors are viewed positively, with recommendations to monitor leading tech companies with strong cash flows [3] - The media sector is showing signs of recovery, with new games performing well and user growth in the gaming segment [3] Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - The Hang Seng non-essential consumer index decreased by 0.98%, underperforming the Hang Seng index by 0.57 percentage points [8] - Notable stock performances include: Gu Ming (+8.72%), Ba Wang Tea (+6.99%), and Luckin Coffee (-6.47%) [8][10] 1.2 Platform & Technology 1.2.1 Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng media index increased by 3.22%, outperforming both the Hang Seng index and the technology index [15] - Key stock performances include: iQIYI (+0.99%) and Tencent Music (-2.86%) [15] 1.2.2 Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - As of January 9, the global cryptocurrency market cap reached $319.54 billion, up 3.40% [22] - Bitcoin and Ethereum prices were $90,505 and $3,083.14, reflecting changes of +0.6% and -1.2% respectively [22] 1.2.3 Automotive Services - The Hang Seng composite index rose by 0.38%, with notable stock performances including Advance Auto Parts (+12.73%) [31] 1.2.4 O2O - The Hang Seng internet technology index decreased by 0.27%, with key stock performances such as JD Health (+13.31%) and Didi Global (-7.19%) [37] 1.2.5 AI & Cloud - The Nasdaq internet index increased by 1.59%, with Amazon (+9.22%) and Google (+4.26%) showing strong performances [39] 1.3 Media - The Shenwan一级传媒 index increased by 13.14%, with the advertising and marketing sector showing the largest gains [46] - Key stock performances include: Xindong Company (+18.50%) and Tencent Holdings (-1.93%) [46]

有的被"库迪占了上风" 有的则是"瑞幸的天下" 最近来到期末周，各大高校尤其是图书馆的垃圾桶，喝完的咖啡/奶茶的包装袋、杯子堆成了一座座小山并外溢到地上。 摆放整齐、数量之多到让人震撼："不说还以为是外卖取餐点""期末周水牛学习法的威力"。 "一到期末图书馆垃圾桶就变异"引发大量网友共鸣，相关话题冲上小红书热搜榜二。网友跟评："简直就是我学校""有我的贡献""期末周根本离不来咖啡 因"…… 谁能想到，眼下饮品竞争最激烈的地方是——大学校园。 最近，"一到期末图书馆垃圾桶就变异"的话题登上小红书热搜，许多网友晒图：垃圾桶被咖啡包装袋和奶茶杯堆满。 有的"库迪占了上风"，有的则是"瑞幸的天下"，还有的几乎被霸王茶姬"包场"。 俨然一张张饮品战场"实时热力图"，同时也照见了校园饮品的新格局。 网友一针见血：秋天第一杯奶茶的营销比不上大学生的期末周。 图源小红书博主@lalaland 已获授权 从网友晒图能看到，有的照片中"库迪占了上风"，有的则是"瑞的天下"，还有清一色的霸王茶姬，1点点在其中若隐若现。 一大学生表示，很多同学起床先点一杯咖啡，再刷牙洗脸去图书馆备战。 网友留言称，"在图书馆坐一天至少要喝两杯奶茶充 ...

Investment Opportunities - Mu Xiaoma completed nearly 10 million RMB in Pre-A financing, with funds allocated for self-research of core components and new product development [3] - Canmi Bio raised 20 million RMB in angel round financing, focusing on enhancing its supply chain system [4] - Su Man Xiang secured several million RMB in A round financing, aimed at supply chain optimization and brand influence enhancement [6] - Xing Lian Future SATELLAI announced several million RMB in A round financing for AI technology development in pet health [8] - Zhang Bang Food completed 10 million RMB in angel round financing, focusing on capacity expansion and global supply chain network construction [9] Company Expansion Plans - Gu Ming exceeded its 2025 target by opening hundreds of additional stores, reaching a total of 13,000 stores by the end of 2025, with plans to open 4,000 more in 2026 [10][11] - Ming Ming Hen Mang is set to become the first "bulk snack stock" in Hong Kong, achieving a retail sales volume of 66.1 billion RMB, a 74.5% increase year-on-year [14] Market Trends - Disney's "Zootopia 2" became the highest-grossing Hollywood film in China, with box office revenue of approximately 4.25 billion RMB [19] - The domestic travel market saw 142 million trips during the New Year holiday, with total spending of 84.789 billion RMB [22]

Group 1: Industry Trends - The condiment industry is seeing a surge in companies going public, focusing on overseas markets to combat rising costs and intense competition, with the industry expected to reach a scale of 498.1 billion yuan by 2024 [2][3] - The popularity of turmeric drinks is rising among young consumers, driven by health trends, with sales strong despite higher prices, and social media engagement showing over 13.2 million views on platforms like Xiaohongshu [4] - The food waste issue is prompting the emergence of the Upcycled Food industry, which is projected to reach a market size of 74.8 billion USD by 2029, utilizing innovative technologies to convert waste into high-value products [6][7] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - A survey indicates that 97.2% of young people have tried "light health" practices, with dietary health and fragmented exercise being the most popular methods, highlighting a shift towards more manageable health solutions [8] - The rise of health-conscious beverages, including sugar-free teas and functional drinks, is attributed to increased consumer awareness and the psychological need for immediate satisfaction in fast-paced lifestyles [10] - The trend of "punk health" in the health liquor sector is attracting younger consumers, with sales of health liquor on e-commerce platforms surging by 75.8% in the first eight months of 2025 [15] Group 3: Market Innovations - The introduction of cooking robots in restaurants is rapidly expanding, with the market expected to exceed 3.7 billion yuan by 2025, driven by AI technology and efficiency improvements [9] - The flavored water market is projected to grow from 22.1 billion USD in 2025 to 57.3 billion USD by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate of 10%, driven by health trends and innovative flavors [16] - The bottled water industry is facing intensified competition, with brands needing to diversify their product offerings and improve supply chain efficiency to maintain market share [17] Group 4: Brand Dynamics - The brand "Guozi Shule" is expanding its product line in the sugar-free tea market and has seen significant growth in its large bottle sales, indicating a strategic shift towards channel expansion [19] - "Tai Er" is undergoing a brand upgrade to focus on fresh ingredients and new dishes, responding to market changes and performance pressures, with a notable decline in revenue [20] - Danone's beverage brand "Pulse" is expected to reach nearly 7 billion yuan in revenue by 2025, with plans to expand into health drinks and face competitive pressures [21]