国际油价狂飙逾10%，中东局势引发供应担忧｜全球能源观察

Core Viewpoint - The recent military actions between Israel and Iran have led to a significant spike in international oil prices, with WTI crude oil futures surpassing $77 per barrel and Brent crude oil futures exceeding $78 per barrel, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - On June 13, international oil prices surged over 10%, reaching a four-month high due to geopolitical tensions stemming from Israel's airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities [1][2]. - Morgan Stanley's chief commodity analyst warned that if the conflict escalates, oil prices could rise exponentially, potentially reaching $120 to $130 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked [1][5]. - Historical data suggests that the impact of geopolitical conflicts on oil prices is often short-lived, with prices typically spiking during conflicts but quickly retracting afterward [3][6]. Group 2: Strait of Hormuz Significance - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical oil transport route, accounting for 30% of global seaborne oil trade and 20% of liquefied natural gas supplies, making it vital for energy exports from several Middle Eastern countries [4][5]. - Analysts indicate that while Iran has threatened to close the Strait in the past, the actual costs and repercussions of such an action have likely deterred them from following through [4][5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Current market sentiment is influenced by fears of Iranian retaliation, which could further drive oil prices upward, with some analysts predicting a challenge to the $80 per barrel mark [2][7]. - Despite the immediate volatility, long-term impacts on oil prices may be limited, as the overall supply-demand balance suggests a potential oversupply in the coming years, with predictions of oil prices stabilizing around $60 per barrel by 2026 [6][7]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand increases may provide short-term support for oil prices, but a return to lower prices is anticipated if supply remains uninterrupted [7].