Zepbound Put Eli Lilly On Top — Now Its Next Big Move Could Supercharge The Stock

Group 1 - Eli Lilly's stock has experienced a decline of over 8% in the past month and nearly 5% in the last five days, but JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott remains optimistic about the company's prospects [1] - Zepbound continues to lead the GLP-1 obesity category, with strong prescription growth expected to position Eli Lilly for guidance increases throughout 2025 [2][3] - Despite a formulary change at CVS affecting approximately 200,000 patients, Eli Lilly's market share remains robust at around 70-75% of new patients, indicating resilience against potential impacts [3] Group 2 - JPMorgan anticipates a surge of 1.2 million prescriptions for Zepbound in the second quarter, highlighting the drug's strong market performance [4] - Orforglipron, Eli Lilly's small-molecule oral GLP-1, is expected to generate significant interest with Phase 3 obesity data anticipated in the third quarter and a launch targeted for mid-2026 [4] - The incretin franchise, including Zepbound and Orforglipron, could achieve sales of $79 billion by 2030, driven by easing pricing pressures and improved insurance coverage [5] Group 3 - Eli Lilly's stock decline is viewed as a buying opportunity, with a valuation of approximately 34x/25x conservative EPS estimates for 2025/2026, suggesting an attractive entry point [6] - The company is managing tariff risks by shifting API production to the U.S. and building inventory buffers, indicating proactive risk management strategies [7] - While Zepbound is currently a key product, Orforglipron is expected to play a significant role in future growth and market performance [7]