Lilly Moves Past 50-Day Average: Should You Buy the Stock Now?

Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) has reached a significant support level, making it an attractive option for investors from a technical standpoint, with the stock breaking through its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), indicating a potential short-term bullish trend [1][9] - The company's cardiometabolic business, particularly the success of its diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss medicine Zepbound, has become a key driver of revenue [3][4] - Despite some challenges, Lilly expects substantial revenue growth in 2025, driven by Mounjaro, Zepbound, and other new drug approvals [31][32] Company Performance - LLY's stock has traded below its 50-day average since early May due to an earnings miss and guidance cut, but it has recently shown signs of recovery [2][9] - Mounjaro and Zepbound generated combined sales of $6.15 billion in Q1 2025, accounting for approximately 48% of the company's total revenues [4][9] - The company expects 2025 revenues to be between $58 billion and $61 billion, reflecting a 32% year-over-year growth [31][32] Product Pipeline and Growth Drivers - Lilly has launched Mounjaro in new international markets, including China, India, and Mexico, which is expected to drive future sales growth [6][11] - The FDA approved Zepbound for a second indication, which could further enhance sales [7] - Lilly's pipeline includes several promising candidates in obesity, diabetes, and cancer, with key mid and late-stage data readouts expected this year [11][12] Competitive Landscape - The obesity market is projected to expand to $100 billion by 2030, leading to increased competition, particularly from Novo Nordisk and other companies developing GLP-1-based therapies [14][15] - Mounjaro and Zepbound face competition from Novo Nordisk's semaglutide medicines and other emerging candidates from companies like Amgen and Viking Therapeutics [15][16] Financial Metrics and Valuation - Lilly's stock has risen 5.6% this year, outperforming the industry and S&P 500 [22][24] - The stock currently trades at a price/earnings ratio of 31.34, higher than the industry average of 15.51, but below its 5-year mean of 34.54 [26][29] - Estimates for Lilly's 2025 earnings have declined recently, but the company still shows solid growth prospects [29][32]