黄金震荡 铂金狂涨

Core Viewpoint - Platinum has emerged as a new favorite in the precious metals market, with prices rising significantly due to supply shortages and strong demand, particularly in China [1][2]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - As of June 13, 2025, spot platinum prices reached $1,300 per ounce, with a notable increase to $1,285.58 per ounce on June 11, marking a nearly ten-year high [1]. - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a supply deficit of 30 tons for the year, marking the third consecutive year of supply shortages in the global platinum market [1][4]. - The price of platinum is currently lower than that of gold, providing a clear cost advantage that has stimulated demand in the jewelry sector [2]. Group 2: Demand Factors - Demand for platinum bars and coins in China doubled year-on-year in Q1 2025, surpassing North America to become the largest retail investment market for platinum globally [2]. - The recovery of the platinum jewelry market and strong investment demand are key drivers of the rising prices [2][3]. - The automotive sector is also contributing to demand, with a narrowing decline in total platinum demand, which reached 95 tons, higher than the five-year average [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - Since mid-May, global platinum ETF holdings have increased by over 3%, indicating a significant influx of capital into platinum-related assets [3]. - The Abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF (PPLT) saw its size grow from approximately $1 billion to $1.4 billion over two months, reflecting organized capital allocation towards platinum [3]. - The Asian market, particularly in Japan and China, is experiencing heightened activity in platinum investments, with new retail outlets emerging [3]. Group 4: Supply Constraints - South Africa, the largest platinum producer, is expected to see a 4% decline in production in 2024, with a projected 15% reduction over the next five years [4]. - WPIC anticipates that global mined platinum supply will be 171 tons in 2025, a 4% decrease from the previous year, with slow development in recycling systems failing to fill the gap [4]. Group 5: Investment Considerations - While platinum has significant long-term appreciation potential, it is subject to high short-term volatility, necessitating careful investment strategies [5]. - Investors are advised to consider the interplay of supply-demand fundamentals, capital flows, and macroeconomic conditions when investing in platinum [5].