Market Overview - Recent recovery in US stock indices continues since the market bottomed out in early April, with the S&P 500 index rising 2.3% and the Nasdaq 100 index increasing 2.6% over the last 10 trading days [4][5] - Positive US employment data, a decline in inflation rates towards long-term targets, and progress in US-China trade talks have collectively supported the upward trend in the stock market [4][5] Industry Performance - The technology sector has shown strong performance, benefiting from the resilience of the US economy and the recent US-China trade negotiations, which have alleviated some market concerns regarding tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [5][6] - The energy sector has also performed well, driven by rising international oil prices amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran [8][11] - Energy prices have been on the rise since April-May, with investors anticipating further increases if conflicts in the Middle East escalate, potentially impacting oil supply routes [8][11] Consumer Sector Challenges - The consumer sector, both essential and discretionary, has faced challenges due to the cost pressures from tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, which have affected profit expectations [11][12] - Recent CPI data indicates a slowdown in inflation, with May CPI rising only 0.1% month-over-month, below market expectations, suggesting that consumer companies are hesitant to raise prices due to fears of losing customers [11][12] - The significant increase in customs tariff revenue, which surged 270% to $23 billion in May, reflects the impact of new tariffs, further complicating the outlook for consumer companies [11][12] Inflation and Economic Outlook - The recent decline in inflation data provides the Federal Reserve with some policy flexibility, potentially supporting the stock market [13] - However, the impact of tariffs on inflation may not be fully captured in the current data, and rising energy prices due to geopolitical tensions could lead to a rebound in inflation [13] - Investors are encouraged to focus on structural opportunities within the market, particularly in traditional energy and telecommunications sectors, while technology stocks remain attractive due to valuation recovery and stable demand for AI [13]
国泰君安：“狮子之力”空袭，美股或承压