如果美国“资本税”落地，高盛预计央行还会买更多黄金

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that global gold demand may rise further depending on the implementation of the "Section 899" tax provision [1][2][4] - Central banks and official institutions (excluding the US) purchased 68 tons of gold in April through the London OTC market, significantly higher than the pre-pandemic average of 17 tons per month [1] - The average monthly gold purchases by central banks this year have reached 88 tons, slightly exceeding Goldman Sachs' previous forecast of 80 tons per month by mid-2026 [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs indicates that if the Section 899 tax proposal leads to a reduction in central bank allocations to US Treasuries, gold demand could further increase [2][4] - The Section 899 provision is currently under review by the US Congress, with unclear implications regarding whether interest earned by foreign central banks on US Treasuries will be subject to withholding tax [4] - Goldman Sachs economists believe that the likelihood of this tax reform being canceled or delayed is high, as the Senate is likely to reject it, and even if passed, central banks may be exempted or the implementation delayed until 2027 [5] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish stance on gold trading, predicting that strong central bank purchases will drive gold prices to $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2022 and further to $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [5] - Due to significant increases in gold holdings by global central banks and rising gold prices, gold has replaced the euro as the second-largest reserve asset held by central banks, following the US dollar [5]