美联储陷“政策迷雾”，通胀还未到？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite a general expectation of declining inflation and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, former Fed Chair Janet Yellen warns that tariffs will likely lead to an increase in inflation, impacting household incomes negatively [2][3] - Yellen predicts that the Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious stance and is unlikely to rush into interest rate cuts despite pressure from President Trump [3] - Recent CPI data shows a lower-than-expected increase, with the overall CPI rising only 0.1% month-on-month in May, and a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, aligning with expectations [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary asserts that non-inflationary growth has been achieved, despite concerns that tariffs would raise prices and trigger secondary inflation [4] - Tariff revenues have increased significantly, with May's revenue rising by approximately $15 billion compared to February, yet consumer prices have not shown a corresponding increase [4][5] - Factors such as preemptive stockpiling by businesses and delayed price adjustments have contributed to the muted impact of tariffs on consumer prices [5] Group 3 - Employment data indicates that while May saw a lower-than-expected job increase of 139,000, it still exceeded market expectations, suggesting that the economy may not be slowing below potential output levels [6] - The Federal Reserve, under Powell's leadership, is unlikely to implement interest rate cuts in the near term despite external pressures [6]