谁是下任美联储主席

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming end of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's term in June 2024 is creating political pressure from the White House, particularly from President Trump and Vice President Vance, who are advocating for interest rate cuts [1][2][3]. Group 1: Political Pressure on Powell - President Trump and Vice President Vance have been urging the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with Trump criticizing Powell's performance and suggesting that the Fed is lagging behind other central banks [2][3]. - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, leading to annual interest payments of $1.2 trillion, making interest rate cuts an appealing option to alleviate fiscal pressure [2]. Group 2: Succession Candidates - The Trump administration is reportedly considering appointing a "shadow chairman" to influence market expectations before Powell's term ends, with four main candidates being discussed: Bessent, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, and Kevin Hassett [4][5]. - Bessent is viewed as a frontrunner due to his close ties to Trump and understanding of his economic agenda, although his close relationship with the White House may compromise the Fed's independence [5][6]. - Warsh, a former Fed governor, has a hawkish stance that may conflict with Trump's desire for rate cuts, while Waller is seen as a potential compromise candidate who understands Fed operations but lacks White House favor [6]. Group 3: Implications for Monetary Policy - The new chairman will face challenges in balancing political pressures for rate cuts with the need to maintain the Fed's credibility, especially in light of rising inflation expectations [6]. - The debate over the next Fed chair underscores the ongoing tension between maintaining the Fed's independence and responding to political demands, which could shape the future direction of U.S. monetary policy [1][6].