久立特材(002318)：再论龙头还有哪些预期差？

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrates high-quality and high-speed growth, with significant stock price outperformance due to excellent expectation management, despite its PE valuation remaining within the 13-15X range [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Over the past decade, the company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5% in sales, 14.2% in revenue, and 22.3% in net profit attributable to the parent company [1] - The company has outperformed the CSI 300 ETF in stock price performance over the last five years, indicating strong market expectations [1] Group 2: Market Concerns - There are concerns regarding the potential decline in demand for the company's products in the oil and gas sector, which is projected to account for approximately 63% of revenue in 2024 [1] - The company’s products, including stainless steel pipes and nickel-based alloy pipes, are primarily targeted at deep-sea and acidic oil and gas markets, which are expected to grow due to increasing global resource extraction [1] Group 3: Growth Potential - The company is positioned to evolve into a nickel-based materials platform, with potential applications in aerospace and nuclear power sectors, indicating further growth opportunities [2] - The company has established a high-level alloy company to ensure the supply of high-end nickel-based materials and has introduced an academic expert to enhance its R&D capabilities [2] Group 4: Business Model - The management adopts a long-term, high-end, and outward-looking strategy, aiming to build a sustainable business model [2] - The company maintains a low-leverage strategy, which is expected to enhance revenue from high-value, high-tech products, and increase cash returns to shareholders through dividends and buybacks [2] Group 5: Financial Projections - The company forecasts earnings per share of 1.75, 1.93, and 2.14 yuan for the years 2025-2027 [2] - Using the DCF method, the target price is set at 32.36 yuan, maintaining a buy rating [2]