钢铁周报 20250907 环保限产下供需双弱，关注旺季修复情况 2025 年 09 月 07 日 ➢ 价格：本周钢材价格涨跌互现。截至 9 月 5 日，上海 20mm HRB400 材质 螺纹价格为 3260 元/吨，较上周升 10 元/吨。高线 8.0mm 价格为 3400 元/吨， 较上周降 10 元/吨。热轧 3.0mm 价格为 3420 元/吨，较上周升 20 元/吨。冷轧 1.0mm 价格为 3800 元/吨，较上周降 20 元/吨。普中板 20mm 价格为 3460 元 /吨，较上周降 30 元/吨。本周原材料中，国产矿市场价格稳中有升，进口矿市 场价格稳中有升，废钢价格下跌。 ➢ 利润：本周钢材利润下降。长流程方面，我们测算本周行业螺纹钢、热轧和 冷轧毛利分别环比前一周变化-46 元/吨，-38 元/吨和-36 元/吨。短流程方面， 本周电炉钢毛利环比前一周变化-21 元/吨。 ➢ 产量与库存：截至 9 月 5 日，五大钢材产量下降，总库存环比上升。产量方 面，本周五大钢材品种产量 861 万吨，环比降 23.96 万吨，其中建筑钢材产量周 环比减 4.18 万吨，板材产量周环比降 19.78 ...

证券之星消息，9月5日特钢板块较上一交易日上涨0.66%，盛德鑫泰领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3812.51，上涨1.24%。深证成指报收于12590.56，上涨3.89%。特钢板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300881 | 盛德登泰 | 35.27 | 2.65% | 1.83万 | 6438.42万 | | 002075 | 沙钢股份 | 5.91 | 1.90% | 42.25万 | 2.47 Z | | 002318 | 久立特材 | 22.17 | 1.74% | 10.07万 | 2.22亿 | | 301160 | 翔楼新材 | 62.40 | 1.36% | 2.30万 | 1.44亿 | | 600117 | 西宁特钢 | 3.35 | 1.21% | 50.78万 | 1.68亿 | | 603995 | 角金股份 | 17.99 | 0.84% | 4.98万 | 8945.76万 | | 002443 | 金洲营道 | 7.18 | ...

Group 1: Overseas Strategy Research - The current AH premium level still has some room to decline, with the narrowing mainly contributed by traditional industries. Traditional industries like real estate and banking still have room for further narrowing, while emerging industries such as semiconductors and hardware are expected to see a gradual narrowing in the future. A-share first-listed companies have a greater downward space for AH premium [3]. Group 2: Strategy Special Report - The structural recovery continues, with AI + overseas expansion being the core prosperity clues in the second-quarter reports. The performance growth of all A non-financial oil and petrochemical (All A two non) slowed down in 25Q2, but the prosperity clues within the technology growth sector accelerated their spread. The global AI industry resonance and overseas expansion are the core prosperity clues. Mid-cap growth stocks have outstanding performance growth, and the prosperity of hard technology and non-banking sectors is dominant [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Strategy - Comprehensive - Interferon α1b, suitable for the Chinese population, has the advantages of low antigenicity and few adverse reactions. It can be used for common viral diseases and malignant tumors, especially in children. The market is mainly in China and India, with a good competitive landscape. Some injections have been included in the medical insurance, and future demand is expected to increase [10]. Group 4: Industry Tracking Report - Military - The military parade demonstrated the high prosperity of the military industry. New and advanced military equipment was showcased, reflecting China's military technological innovation and strategic deterrence capabilities. The industry demand is highly certain, and with the acceleration of reform and innovation, it is expected to maintain high prosperity. Recommended stocks include AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, AVIC Optoelectronics, etc. [13][14][15]. Group 5: Industry Special Research - Household Appliances - The domestic subsidy effect continues, but the marginal effect is decreasing, and the tariff impact on exports is expected to ease. The overseas revenue proportion of the household appliance sector is increasing, and many companies are expanding into new fields. The performance of some companies in Q2 exceeded expectations, mainly in small household appliances and cleaning appliances. Four investment lines are recommended [18][19][20]. Group 6: Industry Strategy - Textile and Apparel - In 2025, the cumulative export of textiles and clothing in China and Vietnam increased year-on-year. In Q2, the revenue growth of many companies slowed down or declined, and the profit margin was under greater pressure. The short-term tariff impact will end at the end of the year, and future order prosperity is the core variable. Recommended stocks include Bailong Eastern, Jiuxing Holdings, etc. [25][26][27]. Group 7: Industry Tracking Report - Social Services - The investment view recommends AI applications, new retail and renovation, and emotional and experiential consumption stocks. The performance of the retail and consumer service sectors last week was ranked 9th and 14th respectively. Key industry information and company announcements were updated [29][30][31]. Group 8: Industry Semi-annual Report - Textile and Apparel - In 25H1, the Hong Kong stock sports sector led the industry in revenue and net profit growth, while the A-share brand performance was divided. The market expectations for brands after the semi-annual reports were mostly revised downwards, but the sports sector showed more resilience. Four investment lines are recommended [34][35][37]. Group 9: Industry Weekly Report - Petroleum - This week, crude oil trading returned to fundamental factors. The probability of interest rate cuts in the US has increased in the medium and long term, and the demand for crude oil has weakened. Recommended stocks include Xin凤鸣, Tongkun Co., Ltd., etc. [39]. Group 10: Company Semi-annual Report Comment - Quicktron Intelligent - The company achieved steady growth in 25H1, with high growth in contract liabilities laying a foundation for future growth. Benefiting from the high prosperity of the downstream AI industry, the demand for its main business continues to grow. The TCB prototype is expected to be launched within this year, expanding the semiconductor packaging map [40][41][42]. Group 11: Company Semi-annual Report Comment - Runhe Software - In 2025H1, the company's non-recurring profit increased significantly, and the intelligent IoT business maintained high prosperity. The company is making efforts in open-source Hongmeng, open-source Euler, and enterprise-level AI to create new driving forces, and is building an AI full-stack technology system [44][45][46]. Group 12: Overseas Report - China Everbright Holdings - The company is a leader in the private equity industry, with both the asset and liability sides showing improvement inflection points. It focuses on technological innovation and is gradually entering the harvest period. A "buy" rating is given for the first coverage, with a target price of HK$14.18 [49][50][51]. Group 13: Company First Coverage - Hanbell Precise Machinery - The company is a leader in the compressor industry, with healthy operating indicators and strong cash flow generation ability. The demand for data centers is surging, and the demand for magnetic levitation compressors is expanding. The company is expected to benefit from the industry's development, and a "buy" rating is given for the first coverage [54][55][56]. Group 14: Company Semi-annual Report Comment - Ruijie Networks - The company's data center business accounts for more than 50% of its revenue, showing strong income elasticity. The net profit margin shows an inflection point trend, and the expense ratio has decreased. A "buy" rating is maintained, with an upward adjustment of the performance forecast [59][60][61]. Group 15: Company Semi-annual Report Comment - Zhonggong International - The company's semi-annual report shows a decline in net profit but an improvement in gross profit margin and cash flow. Newly signed contracts increased by 33%. It has technical and brand advantages in细分 fields, and its investment and operation business in engineering has achieved multi-point breakthroughs. A "buy" rating is maintained [62][63][64]. Group 16: Company Semi-annual Report Comment - Jiuli Special Material - The company's overseas revenue exceeded domestic revenue in the first half of 2025, indicating significant international development achievements. The composite pipe orders were released, and the welding pipe gross profit margin decreased. The power equipment industry is booming, and the alloy company continues to grow. A "buy" rating is maintained [68][69][70]. Group 17: Company Semi-annual Report Comment - MEI Airtech - The company's operation is stable, and its performance is growing steadily. It actively responds to the overseas expansion of new energy and accelerates global layout to expand downstream markets. Solid-state batteries require higher cleanliness, and the company's clean equipment is expected to benefit first. A "buy" rating is maintained [72][73][74]. Group 18: Company Semi-annual Report Comment - Haimuxing - The company's performance was under pressure in 25H1, but it is expected to improve in the future. Its globalization strategy has achieved remarkable results, and its non-lithium battery business is advancing steadily. With sufficient orders, it has strong performance elasticity. A "buy" rating is given [77][78][79]. Group 19: Company First Coverage - FAW Jiefang - The company is a leading enterprise in China's commercial vehicle industry. Its 2025 semi-annual report was under pressure, but with the recovery of the domestic and overseas markets, its profitability is expected to improve. It is accelerating overseas layout to enhance its profitability. A "buy" rating is given for the first coverage [80][81][83]. Group 20: Company Semi-annual Report Comment - Shenzhou Information - The company's revenue increased steadily in the first half of 2025, and its profit in Q2 significantly reduced losses. Its financial software and service business grew steadily against the trend, and its large customer strategy achieved remarkable results. It has deeply explored the "AI + finance" application, and two strategic products have been implemented in scenarios. A "buy" rating is maintained [84][85][86]. Group 21: Company Semi-annual Report Comment - SAIC Motor - The company's reform results are emerging, and its performance is stabilizing and rebounding. The Huawei project is progressing smoothly, and the first model of the SAIC Shangjie brand is worth looking forward to. A "buy" rating is maintained [89][90]. Group 22: Company Semi-annual Report Comment - China World Trade Center - The company's revenue and profit decreased year-on-year in 2025H1, and the rent and occupancy rate of each business format fluctuated. The China World Trade Center supports its core revenue. A "buy" rating is maintained [92][93][94].

证券之星消息，9月4日特钢板块较上一交易日下跌0.96%，翔楼新材领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3765.88，下跌1.25%。深证成指报收于12118.7，下跌2.83%。特钢板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002443 | 金洲管道 | 7.14 | 1.71% | 18.00万 | | 1.28亿 | | 002478 | 常宝股份 | 5.55 | 0.36% | 11.35万 | | 6283.64万 | | 300881 | 盛德整泰 | 34.36 | 0.35% | 1.41万 | | 4836.46万 | | 6668609 | 角金股份 | 17.84 | 0.00% | 4.06万 | | 7244.90万 | | 002318 | 久立特材 | 21.79 | -0.09% | 10.32万 | | 2.25亿 | | 000825 | 太钢不锈 | 3.91 | -0.26% | 39.11万 | | 1.53亿 | | ...

Group 1: Company Overview - Hanbell Precise Machinery - Hanbell Precise Machinery is a leading company in the compressor industry, benefiting from the high growth demand in downstream AIDC construction, with its magnetic levitation compressor products expected to see significant sales growth [2][25] - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.1% in revenue from 2014 to 2024, with a projected net profit margin of 23.5% and a return on equity (ROE) of 21.77% in 2024, indicating strong operational health [3][28] - The company’s operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 410 million, accounting for 27.4% of its revenue, showcasing its strong cash flow generation capability [3][28] Group 2: Market Demand and Trends - The demand for magnetic levitation compressors is expanding due to the surge in data center construction driven by AI applications, with liquid cooling becoming the mainstream cooling technology [4][29] - The estimated market demand for magnetic levitation centrifugal compressors for 100,000 GB300 cabinets is approximately 14.3 billion, highlighting the significant market potential [4][29] - Hanbell is positioned as a leader in the magnetic levitation compressor market, accelerating the import substitution process in the data center cooling market, with production capacity established in multiple regions including Shanghai, Taiwan, Vietnam, the US, and Europe [4][29] Group 3: Industry Insights - Wholesale and Retail - The wholesale and retail industry is expected to benefit from rising gold prices, with the gold and jewelry sector showing low valuations and strong domestic demand support [6][7] - The anticipated increase in gold prices is expected to enhance the sales elasticity of gold jewelry brands, particularly those with a high proportion of sales from investment gold [7][8] - The industry is projected to see a steady net increase in channel expansion despite market challenges, with brands that focus on investment gold and high-value products likely to outperform [7][8] Group 4: Industry Insights - Military Industry - The military industry is experiencing high prosperity, as demonstrated by the recent military parade showcasing new equipment, reflecting China's military technology innovation and strategic deterrence capabilities [11][12] - The focus on modernizing military equipment is expected to drive long-term growth in the military sector, with increased defense spending anticipated due to rising geopolitical tensions [13][21] - Key military companies are expected to benefit from this trend, with recommendations for investment in companies such as AVIC and North Navigation [13][21] Group 5: Overseas Strategy Insights - The current AH premium level has potential downward space, primarily driven by traditional industries, with real estate and banking sectors still having room for premium contraction [10][18] - Emerging industries like semiconductors and hardware are also expected to see a gradual narrowing of AH premiums, indicating a shift in market dynamics [10][18]

海外持续发力，合金公司持续增长 久立特材(002318) 久立特材 2025 年中报点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李鹏飞(分析师) | 010-83939783 | lipengfei2@gtht.com | S0880519080003 | | 魏雨迪(分析师) | 021-38674763 | weiyudi@gtht.com | S0880520010002 | | 王宏玉(分析师) | 021-38038343 | wanghongyu@gtht.com | S0880523060005 | 本报告导读： 公司 2025 年上半年业绩符合预期。公司海外业务持续发力，复合管业绩大幅上升。 公司下游中电力设备需求景气度较高，且合金公司不断成长，预期公司业绩将平稳 释放。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

从资金流向上来看，当日特钢板块主力资金净流出2.44亿元，游资资金净流入1.18亿元，散户资金净流入 1.27亿元。特钢板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，9月2日特钢板块较上一交易日下跌1.15%，久立特材领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3858.13，下跌0.45%。深证成指报收于12553.84，下跌2.14%。特钢板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 301160 | 翔楼新材 | 66.02 | 3.03% | 5.36万 | | 3.43 Z | | 300881 | 盛德整泰 | 35.34 | 0.97% | 2.72万 | | 9605.07万 | | 002443 | 全州管道 | 7.52 | 0.67% | 20.72万 | | 1.54亿 | | 666009 | 抚顺特钢 | 5.58 | 0.18% | 70.51万 | | 3.93亿 | | 002478 | 常宝股份 | 5.52 | 0.00% | 12.50万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a decline in the export value of China's black metal smelting and rolling industry, indicating potential challenges for companies in this sector [1]. Industry Summary - In July 2025, the export value of China's black metal smelting and rolling industry was 15.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2% [1]. - From January to July 2025, the cumulative export value reached 116.06 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.3% [1]. - The report provides a comprehensive market survey and investment outlook for the black metal mining and selection industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1]. Company Summary - Listed companies mentioned include CITIC Special Steel, Hebei Steel, Zhongnan Co., Benxi Steel, Sansteel Minguang, Jiuli Special Materials, Jinzhu Pipeline, Changbao Co., Shengde Xintai, Anyang Steel, Bayi Steel, New Steel, and Maanshan Steel [1].

Market Overview - On September 1, the special steel sector rose by 0.15% compared to the previous trading day, with Jinzhu Pipeline leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.53, up 0.46%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12828.95, up 1.05% [1] Stock Performance - Jinzhu Pipeline (002443) closed at 7.47, with a gain of 4.33% and a trading volume of 263,600 shares [1] - Fangda Special Steel (600507) closed at 5.71, up 2.33%, with a trading volume of 345,300 shares and a transaction value of 196 million yuan [1] - Shengde Zhengtai (300881) closed at 35.00, up 2.07%, with a trading volume of 19,100 shares and a transaction value of 65.98 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include: - Jincheng Special Steel (000708) at 13.19, up 1.00% [1] - Xining Special Steel (600117) at 3.41, up 0.89% [1] - Changbao Co. (002478) at 5.52, unchanged [1] - Fushun Special Steel (6660009) at 5.57, unchanged [1] - Jiuli Special Materials (002318) at 22.37, down 0.67% [1] - Shagang Co. (002075) at 6.24, down 1.42% [1] Capital Flow - The special steel sector experienced a net outflow of 68.61 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 5.06 million yuan [2] - Notable capital flows include: - Jinzhu Pipeline had a net inflow of 14.53 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 9.11 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Fangda Special Steel saw a net outflow of 5.39 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Shengde Xintai had a net inflow of 6.24 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Tai Steel (000825) experienced a significant net outflow of 9.61 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their profitability and stock performance [3][4]. Core Insights - Supply control expectations are rising, which may lead to a recovery in steel mill profits. Despite high production levels, demand is slowly recovering, and inventory continues to accumulate, resulting in a slight decline in steel mill profits [3][4]. - The report highlights that the current steel prices are at a low point for the year, and with inventory levels low and demand stabilizing, the potential for further profit declines is limited [3][4]. - The report suggests that the recent supply-side adjustments may be more precise, promoting a competitive environment that could enhance the profitability of steel companies [3][4]. Price Trends - As of August 29, 2025, steel prices have decreased, with 20mm HRB400 rebar priced at 3,250 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other steel products also saw slight price declines [1][11]. - The report notes that the average price changes for various steel products over the past month show a decrease of 5.8% for rebar and 4.2% for hot-rolled sheets [12]. Production and Inventory - As of August 29, 2025, the total production of the five major steel products reached 8.85 million tons, an increase of 6.55 million tons week-on-week. Rebar production increased by 5.91 million tons to 2.2056 million tons [2][3]. - Total social inventory of the five major steel products rose by 291,000 tons to 10.4532 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 23,300 tons [2][3]. Profitability - The report indicates a decline in steel mill profits, with estimated gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel decreasing by 48 CNY/ton, 75 CNY/ton, and 61 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. - The profitability of electric arc furnace steel also saw a decrease of 28 CNY/ton week-on-week [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel in the flat steel sector, and Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., Ltd. in the special steel sector [3][4].