Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-06-15 02:58Group 1 - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is escalating, with oil prices at risk of significant increases due to recent airstrikes on Iranian oil facilities by Israel [1] - Morgan Stanley's commodity analyst Natasha Kaneva has raised the probability of a "worst-case scenario" from 7% to 17%, indicating a higher likelihood of oil price surges if the Strait of Hormuz is closed [1][2] - The current geopolitical premium on oil prices is $10 above the fair value of $66 per barrel, suggesting potential for further price increases [1] Group 2 - The Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20% of global oil supply, is under scrutiny, with analysts noting that sustained high energy prices could reignite inflation, countering recent trends of declining consumer prices in the U.S. [2] - Deutsche Bank's energy analyst Hsueh outlined three potential supply disruption scenarios that could push Brent crude prices above $100 per barrel, with a forecasted reduction of Iranian oil exports by 400,000 barrels per day by year-end [2][3] - Market pricing currently reflects only moderate risk scenarios, indicating that the potential for a closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not fully accounted for in oil futures [4] Group 3 - The market appears unprepared for extreme scenarios, with potential for significant oil price volatility if conflicts escalate [6] - Gold is showing potential as a safe-haven asset amid rising tensions, while commodity trading advisors are closely monitoring opportunities for oil price breakouts [6]