厦门大学教授赵燕菁：房地产不涨都没戏，大家都会没钱！

Core Viewpoint - The primary goal for the real estate market this year is to stabilize and stop the decline, with various opinions on when this will happen [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - According to a report from Jiayuan International, there are signs of stabilization in the real estate market, with new home sales expected to reach between 8 trillion and 8.5 trillion yuan this year [3]. - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) believes that confidence in stabilization is growing, but achieving it depends on three key indicators: transaction volume, housing prices, and real estate investment, requiring patience [3]. - Official statements indicate that the market is moving towards stabilization, but adjustments are still needed, particularly in areas facing significant inventory pressure [3]. Group 2: Economic Context and Consumer Confidence - The current lack of confidence and income expectations among consumers is a major barrier to recovery, with many people adopting a wait-and-see approach due to concerns about employment and income stability [4]. - The real estate sector directly employs 10.12 million people and indirectly supports an additional 70.51 million jobs across various related industries, highlighting its extensive impact on the economy [5]. Group 3: Financial Implications of Real Estate - Professor Zhao Yanjing emphasizes that the underlying issue in real estate is financial rather than merely housing-related, warning that a decline in real estate could destabilize the entire financial system [8]. - A 5% drop in housing prices could lead to a wealth evaporation of 19 trillion yuan, underscoring the significant scale of the real estate market and its importance for overall economic health [8]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - While there is a recognition of the importance of real estate, there is also caution against returning to past practices of rapid price increases, which could lead to negative consequences [11]. - A gradual adjustment and stabilization of housing prices is viewed as a healthier approach for the market [11].