邓正红能源软实力：当前原油市场地缘溢价尚未反映霍尔木兹海峡关闭的可能性

Core Insights - The article discusses the geopolitical crisis triggered by Israeli airstrikes on Iranian oil refineries, increasing the risk of closure of the Strait of Hormuz and potentially driving oil prices to $130 per barrel [1][2] - Morgan Stanley warns that the market is underestimating the probability of worst-case scenarios, with current Brent crude prices not fully reflecting the geopolitical risks involved [1][3] Geopolitical Crisis - Israeli airstrikes on two oil refineries in Iran's Bushehr province have escalated tensions, with the potential for oil prices to surge significantly if the Strait of Hormuz is closed [1][2] - The probability of the Strait's closure is now estimated to have increased from 8% to 23% due to the current geopolitical climate [4] Oil Price Projections - Under Morgan Stanley's worst-case scenario, oil prices could rise to between $120 and $130 per barrel, with a 17% probability of this occurring [2][4] - Current oil prices are in a "comfortable range" of $60 to $65 per barrel, but sustained high energy prices could reignite inflation, conflicting with U.S. economic goals [2][4] Market Dynamics - The Brent futures price curve only partially reflects medium-risk scenarios, with a significant pricing gap of 54% for extreme events like the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [3] - Commodity trading advisors are closely monitoring oil price movements, particularly a potential breakout above $69.36 per barrel [3] Supply Chain Implications - The airstrikes have heightened risks for methanol imports in China, which relies on Iran for 60% of its supply, leading to increased price elasticity in the region [3] - The attacks on the South Pars refinery could disrupt Iran's natural gas export capacity, potentially impacting the LNG market [3] Political Considerations - U.S. President Trump faces a dilemma between controlling inflation and curbing Iran's influence, with potential oil price spikes prompting the use of strategic reserves [4] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with the soft power dynamics of global energy markets being re-evaluated in light of recent events [2][4]