黄金走势推演与后市机会分析（2025.6.15）

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices started to rise on Monday, experienced fluctuations on Tuesday, and ended the week with three consecutive days of gains, resulting in a weekly bullish close [2] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, have heightened market concerns, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - The continuous conflict between Russia and Ukraine has also maintained high levels of market risk aversion, further boosting the demand for gold [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - There is a widespread market expectation that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in 2025, particularly during the upcoming meeting on June 19, which could weaken the dollar and support gold prices [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The current strong upward trend in the gold market deviates from previous expectations of a downward Y wave, with two main viewpoints regarding the ongoing wave structure [6] - If the third wave (3) is deemed complete, the market may be in a fourth wave (4) adjustment phase, with potential resistance around $3500 [11] - If the third wave (3) is still ongoing, the current upward movement from a low of $3120 indicates a new internal structure of the third wave, suggesting further upward potential in the short term [13] - The key support level for future market movements is identified at $3293, which is crucial for determining investment strategies [15]