DLS外汇：通胀放缓与避险升温交织 市场的真实情绪到底偏向何方？

Market Overview - The market experienced significant volatility due to multiple factors, including lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data for May, which increased bets on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Concurrently, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered a global risk-off sentiment, leading to substantial price increases in commodities like gold and oil, while major global stock indices faced pressure [1] U.S. Stock Market Performance - All three major U.S. indices closed lower for the week, with the Dow Jones falling over 1% and the Russell 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks, declining even more, indicating cautious expectations for future growth [3] - Despite the decline in inflation potentially supporting asset valuations, hedge funds and institutional investors have not fully shifted to a bullish stance, instead adopting a more defensive approach amid rising oil and gold prices [3] - Notable tech giants such as Apple, Meta, and Amazon experienced pullbacks, reflecting profit-taking pressures after previous gains, while Tesla showed strength due to positive developments in AI and energy sectors [3] European Market Dynamics - The European market faced dual pressures from political uncertainty and macroeconomic slowdown, with the German DAX index dropping over 3% for the week, making it the worst performer among major global markets [3] - In contrast, the UK market remained relatively resilient, possibly due to stable fluctuations in the British pound and benefits to energy-related companies [3] Commodity Market Trends - International oil prices surged due to the escalation of Middle Eastern conflicts and uncertain supply outlooks, while gold reached a temporary high driven by safe-haven demand [4] - The rapid increase in commodity prices has not yet translated into higher PPI and CPI levels but is beginning to impact corporate cost structures, which could suppress corporate profits and consumer confidence if sustained [4] - The current market state should not be oversimplified as either "bearish" or "bullish," but rather viewed as a transitional phase where investors are cautious and awaiting clearer signals from macroeconomic and policy developments [4][5]