Duolingo Stock Is Overvalued, According to Wall Street. Time to Sell?

Core Viewpoint - Duolingo's stock has seen significant growth, with a 43% increase in 2024 and an additional 47% in 2025, leading analysts to suggest that the stock may be overvalued [1][2] Company Performance - Duolingo's user base is expanding, with nearly 47 million daily users and 10 million paying subscribers, marking a 40% increase year-over-year [6] - The company has maintained over 40% quarterly revenue growth since the start of 2022, indicating that revenue is doubling approximately every two years [9] Business Strategy - Duolingo employs A/B testing and incorporates game-like elements to enhance user engagement and motivation [7] - The company is diversifying its offerings beyond language learning to include subjects like math, music, and chess, which broadens its market opportunity [8] Technological Impact - Generative AI is accelerating product development, with nearly 150 new language courses launched in Q1 2025 [11] - While generative AI presents growth opportunities, it also poses risks by enabling competitors to offer similar services [11] Valuation Considerations - Duolingo's stock trades at nearly 30 times its sales, suggesting it may not be a bargain at current levels [12] - Assuming a sustained 40% growth rate, Duolingo could generate $4.0 billion in annual revenue by 2029, with a current market capitalization of $21.9 billion, leading to a valuation of 5.5 times the 2029 sales forecast [14]