David Gardner: Risk. A lot of people talk about it, but especially in the investment world, I've never found that talk very satisfying. First of all, how do you, how do I, how do they, define risk? What does it mean, even to say that's a risky stock? The definitions are often unclear. Then some professional analysts in the risk section of their stock research will say stuff like medium. As in, this is a medium risk stock. What does that mean? Well, more than a decade ago, I developed a 25 point risk rating ...

Core Insights - The podcast discusses a 25-point risk rating system developed by David Gardner to provide a more concrete and measurable understanding of investment risk, moving away from vague terms like "medium risk" [4][5]. Group 1: Risk Assessment Framework - The risk rating system consists of 25 yes or no questions, where each "no" adds a point, indicating higher risk with a higher score [5]. - The framework can be applied not only to individual stocks but also to entire portfolios by calculating a weighted average risk score [5]. - The discussion emphasizes that understanding risk is about studying quality and that lower-risk stocks can sometimes yield greater returns [5]. Group 2: Company Analysis - Etsy - Etsy reported a net income of $182 million over the past 12 months and $75 million in the last quarter, indicating profitability [12]. - The company had a free cash flow of approximately $205 million in the last quarter and $635 million over the past year [16]. - Etsy has over 93 million buyers and 8.5 million sellers, ensuring no single customer accounts for more than 20% of its revenue [22]. - However, Etsy's net promoter score is -7, indicating questionable customer sentiment, and it has seen a decline in active buyers and gross merchandise sales [26]. Group 3: Company Analysis - Duolingo - Duolingo achieved a net income of approximately $386 million over the past 12 months and was profitable in the last quarter, aided by a one-time tax benefit [13]. - The company reported a free cash flow of about $350 million, growing by 20% year over year [17]. - Duolingo has over 50 million daily active users, with 9.5 million being paid subscribers, indicating a diversified revenue base [25]. - The brand enjoys over 50% awareness in the U.S. language learning market, supported by strong word-of-mouth marketing [21]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Etsy did not increase its sales by 10%-40% annually in the previous three years, with only single-digit growth in 2023 and 2024 [30]. - Duolingo, on the other hand, has seen annual revenue growth of at least 40% over the past three years, with a compound annual growth rate of 42% [32]. - Etsy has more debt than cash and has issued convertible debt, raising concerns about its ability to operate independently without external funding [35]. - Duolingo has a strong balance sheet with over $1.1 billion in cash and short-term investments, indicating it can operate independently [36]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Etsy faces significant competition from larger companies like Amazon and Shopify, which have greater financial resources [45]. - Duolingo is considered a market leader with strong brand recognition, surpassing competitors like Babel and Rosetta Stone in user-based revenue share [46]. - While there are no true disruptors in Etsy's space, smaller alternatives exist, indicating a competitive environment [48]. - Duolingo faces potential disruption from AI technologies, although no direct competition currently exists [49]. Group 6: Stock Metrics - Etsy has a market cap of approximately $6 billion, which is below the $10 billion threshold [57]. - Duolingo's market cap is around $7 billion, also below the $10 billion mark [59]. - Etsy's beta is 0.85, indicating lower volatility compared to the market, while Duolingo's beta has fluctuated significantly, indicating higher volatility [61][62].

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the greatest investment opportunity of the current era, with a strong emphasis on the urgent need for energy to support its growth [1][2][3] Investment Opportunity - A specific company is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity, possessing critical energy infrastructure assets that are essential for meeting the increasing energy demands of AI data centers [3][7] - This company is not a chipmaker or cloud platform but is positioned to benefit significantly from the anticipated surge in electricity demand driven by AI technologies [3][6] Energy Demand and Infrastructure - AI technologies, particularly large language models like ChatGPT, are extremely energy-intensive, with data centers consuming as much energy as small cities [2] - The company is involved in the U.S. LNG exportation sector, which is expected to grow under the current administration's energy policies [7] Financial Position - The company is noted for being debt-free and holding a substantial cash reserve, amounting to nearly one-third of its market capitalization, which positions it favorably compared to other energy firms burdened with debt [8] - It is trading at less than 7 times earnings, indicating a potentially undervalued investment opportunity in the context of its critical role in the energy sector [10] Market Trends - The company is strategically aligned with several market trends, including the AI infrastructure supercycle, the onshoring boom due to tariffs, and the surge in U.S. LNG exports [14] - There is a growing interest from hedge funds in this company, suggesting that it is gaining recognition as a valuable investment opportunity [9] Future Outlook - The influx of talent into the AI sector is expected to drive continuous innovation and advancements, reinforcing the importance of investing in AI-related companies [12] - The overall sentiment is that investing in AI is not just about financial returns but also about participating in a transformative technological revolution [15]

TMTB Morning Wrap TMTB 早间摘要 TMT BREAKOUT TMT 突破 JAN 28, 2026 2026 年 1 ⽉ 28 ⽇ ∙ PAID ∙ 已付费 Share 分享 Good morning. Futures +85bps on the back of positive earnings from STX, ASML, and TXN. The ACCel era living up to its name as AI vibes continue to be strong to start the year. Asia mixed: TPX -0.79%, NKY +0.05%, Hang Seng +2.58%, HSCEI +2.89%, SHCOMP +0.27%, Shenzhen -0.01%, Taiwan TAIEX +1.5%, Korea KOSPI +1.69%. Yields/BTC are flattish. 早上好。受 STX、ASML 和 TXN 利好财报提振，期货上涨 85 个基点。ACCel 时代名 副其实，随着年度开局 AI 氛围持续强劲。亚 ...

Artificial intelligence is the greatest investment opportunity of our lifetime. The time to invest in groundbreaking AI is now, and this stock is a steal! AI is eating the world—and the machines behind it are ravenous. Each ChatGPT query, each model update, each robotic breakthrough consumes massive amounts of energy. In fact, AI is already pushing global power grids to the brink. Wall Street is pouring hundreds of billions into artificial intelligence—training smarter chatbots, automating industries, and b ...

Key Takeaways Chegg is pivoting to skilling and AI learning, but legacy traffic declines cloud turnaround timing.Duolingo shows strong user engagement and MAX expansion, though monetization growth is moderating.CHGG trades at a discount with rebound potential, while DUOL commands a premium amid execution risks.The market's inclination toward digital learning, particularly AI-based alternatives, is favoring the edtech market and the firms operating within it, such as Chegg, Inc. (CHGG) and Duolingo, Inc. (DU ...

Core Insights - Duolingo (DUOL) is recognized as a leader in language education and has established itself as a well-known consumer tech application with significant profitability and rapid growth [1] Company Overview - Duolingo has historically enjoyed a large premium due to its strong market position and financial performance [1] Investment Perspective - The article reflects a positive sentiment towards Duolingo's stock, indicating a beneficial long position in its shares [2]

Core Viewpoint - Duolingo Inc's stock is experiencing significant declines, trading near IPO levels, down nearly 73% from its peak, as investors fear generative AI will disrupt language-learning apps [1][2] Market Sentiment - The prevailing bearish sentiment assumes that AI will commoditize language learning, questioning the need for apps if chatbots can provide instant translations and grammar explanations [3] Business Model Distinction - Duolingo's value proposition lies in habit formation rather than mere information delivery; fluency cannot be achieved through prompts alone, highlighting a critical market misunderstanding [4] AI Integration - Duolingo is leveraging AI to enhance its offerings, with the "Max" tier featuring generative AI tools leading to increased user engagement and premium subscriptions, resulting in 41% year-over-year revenue growth and 11.5 million paid subscribers [5] Analyst Outlook - Analysts maintain a bullish perspective, projecting over 40% upside potential from current stock levels, with expectations of sustained growth and long-term EBITDA margins of 30-35% [6] Investment Implications - Current stock valuation suggests Duolingo is being treated as an AI casualty rather than a beneficiary, indicating a potential mispricing of the company's growth prospects if the market's fears about AI are unfounded [7]

Shutthiphong Chandaeng/iStock via Getty Images By Jeffrey Bailin, CFA & Aram Green An Uneven 2025 Gives Way to a Hopeful 2026 Market Overview In many respects, 2025’s market resembled the preceding two years. We entered each with conditions that seemed poised to set the stage for the end to the longest losing streak on record for small caps versus large caps and hopes for a broadening out of growth sectors. However, this turned out to be another narrowly driven year of narratives, strong performance for ...

Duolingo Inc. (NASDAQ:DUOL) ranks among the 10 best new stocks to buy in Ray Dalio’s portfolio. Following the announcement of a CFO shift, Truist Securities reaffirmed its Buy rating and $245 price target for Duolingo Inc. (NASDAQ:DUOL) on January 12. The company is gearing up for a leadership transition as current CFO Matt Skaruppa prepares to leave, with Gillian Munson taking over the post. Munson has been sitting on Duolingo’s board since 2019. Goldman Sachs Maintains Neutral on Duolingo, Slashes Targe ...