以伊冲突扩大化、长期化，交易员为油价“更多动荡”做准备

Group 1 - Israel's recent precision strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure have heightened volatility in the global oil market, with analysts warning that the escalation of conflict could inject more risk premium into crude oil prices [1][2] - The attacks have temporarily destroyed gas processing facilities related to Iran's South Pars gas field and forced the shutdown of a production platform, leading to significant explosions and fires [1] - West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures surged by 14% to around $73 per barrel following the outbreak of the Israel-Iran conflict [1] Group 2 - The ongoing conflict is expected to escalate and could last for an extended period, potentially impacting economic targets and causing civilian casualties, which may further increase risk premiums in oil prices [2] - The Strait of Hormuz has emerged as a critical variable, with Iran threatening to block this key transit point, which could lead to oil prices soaring to $130 per barrel if closed [3] - Despite concerns, some analysts believe that fears regarding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may be overstated, as Iran has historically threatened but not executed such actions [3] Group 3 - Iran remains the third-largest oil producer in OPEC, with a daily output of approximately 3.4 million barrels, despite facing heavy U.S. sanctions [4] - The International Energy Agency has indicated that the global oil market is well-supplied and is prepared to utilize emergency reserves if necessary [4]