“摸着中国过河”，越南一把彻底取消计划生育，急什么？

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam's demographic dividend is rapidly diminishing, prompting the government to amend its population policy to allow couples to decide on the number and timing of children without restrictions, contrasting with China's earlier policy changes [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The recent amendment to the Population Law allows couples to determine their family size based on various personal factors, effectively abolishing the previous limit of one to two children [2]. - Vietnam's total fertility rate remains at 1.91, which is still above China's rate when it relaxed its one-child policy, indicating a proactive approach to demographic challenges [2]. Group 2: Demographic Concerns - Vietnam is experiencing a significant decline in birth rates, dropping from 2.11 to 1.91 between 2022 and 2024, a rapid decrease compared to other countries [4][6]. - Projections indicate that if the current trend continues, Vietnam could face a labor shortage within a decade, transitioning to an aging population by 2034 [6][7]. Group 3: Socioeconomic Factors - Urbanization and rising living costs are contributing to changing attitudes towards marriage and childbirth among the youth, with many young people facing high housing costs and limited social circles [9][11]. - The average age of first marriage for women has increased to 27, reflecting a shift in societal norms and priorities, particularly among educated women [15]. Group 4: Labor Market Challenges - Companies in Vietnam are struggling to fill positions, with reports of labor shortages in manufacturing despite offering competitive salaries [16]. - The younger workforce is increasingly favoring flexible job opportunities in the service sector over traditional manufacturing roles, leading to a mismatch in labor supply and demand [16][17].