成品油：国际原油强势上涨 成品油零售上调幅度拉宽

Core Viewpoint - The current round of retail fuel price adjustments in China is expected to see an increase due to rising international crude oil prices, with a potential for consecutive price hikes in the near future [1][2]. Group 1: International Oil Prices - International crude oil prices have risen to between $73 and $78 per barrel, driven by optimistic expectations surrounding US-China trade negotiations and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2]. - The average price of crude oil has shown significant increases, with the reference crude oil change rate reaching 5.26% as of June 13, indicating a widening price increase for retail fuel [2]. Group 2: Domestic Fuel Price Adjustments - The expected increase in retail fuel prices is projected to be around 230 yuan per ton, with the final adjustment possibly exceeding 280 yuan per ton [2]. - If the price adjustment is confirmed, the cost for a private car to fill a 50L tank will increase by approximately 11 yuan, while the monthly fuel cost for a vehicle running 2,000 kilometers will rise by about 16 yuan [2]. - For heavy-duty trucks running 10,000 kilometers per month, the fuel cost is expected to increase by around 425 yuan before the next price adjustment window [2]. Group 3: Future Price Trends - Concerns over supply disruptions due to Middle Eastern tensions suggest that international oil prices may continue to rise, although potential de-escalation in the region could lead to price corrections [3]. - The next retail fuel price adjustment window is anticipated on July 1, with expectations for a third consecutive price increase based on current crude oil prices [3].