dbg盾博:美联储利率或被“卡死”数月，双重风暴正在酝酿！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction is under unprecedented complexity, with significant uncertainty regarding the impact of the Trump administration's policy adjustments on the U.S. economy, indicating that no rate changes are expected before September [1][3]. Economic Outlook - Over 90% of surveyed economists believe the Federal Reserve must wait until September or later to accurately assess the combined effects of trade, immigration, and fiscal policies [3]. - Half of the economists suggest that clear signals reflecting policy impacts may not emerge until the fourth quarter, with some predicting that definitive conclusions may not be reached within the year [3]. - Despite a median forecast indicating a 25 basis point rate cut in September and December, this prediction appears increasingly fragile amid a volatile economic environment [3]. Economic Data Analysis - Recent economic data shows a mixed outlook, with May inflation growth below expectations and an unemployment rate stable at 4.2%, but potential risks remain [4]. - The actual impact of tariff policies has yet to fully materialize, with companies indicating intentions to pass on tariff costs to consumers, potentially increasing inflationary pressures [4]. - A significant reduction in foreign labor may tighten the job market, which could negatively affect economic growth despite a superficial stabilization of the unemployment rate [4]. Federal Reserve Meeting Expectations - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is highly anticipated, with expectations that rates will remain unchanged for the fourth consecutive time [5]. - Policymakers emphasize a cautious approach until the effects of the Trump administration's new policies become clearer [5]. - Analysts express skepticism regarding the value of the Fed's upcoming economic forecasts due to the current uncertainty, with about half indicating they will place less importance on these predictions compared to previous forecasts [6]. Economic Growth Projections - Economists expect the Fed to lower its growth forecasts, reflecting concerns about the U.S. economic outlook [6]. - Interestingly, the proportion of economists predicting a recession within the next 12 months has dropped from 26% in late April to 10% [6]. - Over 70% of respondents believe that if inflation stability and full employment conflict, the Fed will likely maintain rates, although many still anticipate a shift towards rate cuts to stimulate growth [6].