白银：涨势如虹，风险犹存

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced significant price increases in 2025, with spot silver prices rising from approximately $29 per ounce at the beginning of the year to around $36.8 per ounce by early June, marking a cumulative increase of over 27% [1]. Group 1: Demand Factors - The ongoing geopolitical tensions have heightened market risk aversion, leading to increased demand for precious metals, including silver, which has seen a surge in prices due to this safe-haven demand [2]. - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is a key driver of silver demand, with the International Energy Agency projecting that global PV installations will exceed 600 gigawatts in 2024, maintaining stable growth into 2025. Silver plays a crucial role in solar cell production, directly impacting energy conversion efficiency [2]. - The growth of the electric vehicle (EV) market is also contributing to silver demand, with the World Silver Association reporting that the silver usage per unit in hybrid and electric vehicles is expected to increase by 21% and 71%, respectively, compared to traditional vehicles [2]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - Global silver production from major producing countries is struggling to keep pace with rising demand, resulting in a significant supply-demand gap. In 2024, total silver demand is projected to reach 36,700 tons, while supply is only expected to be 31,700 tons, creating a shortfall of 5,000 tons that has persisted for five consecutive years [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts from various institutions believe that silver prices still have room for upward movement, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach $40 per ounce this year, driven by increased PV installations and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [4]. - The current gold-silver ratio is high at 90, indicating substantial potential for silver price increases. Additionally, ongoing central bank purchases of silver are expected to bolster bullish market sentiment [4]. - The silver market is entering a historic opportunity window, influenced by escalating supply-demand imbalances and the financial attributes of silver. Short-term price fluctuations will be affected by geopolitical uncertainties and Federal Reserve policy directions, while long-term growth will be supported by the explosive growth of the PV and EV industries [4].