为啥伊朗这些年给人的感觉是越来越弱了？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex socio-political dynamics in Iran, highlighting the tension between religious authority and modern education, which has led to a growing discontent among the populace against the ruling clerical regime [30]. Group 1: Socio-Political Dynamics - The ruling elite in Iran consists mainly of Azerbaijanis, while the majority population is Persian, leading to a perception of "small ethnic rule over a large nation" [1]. - The ideological conflict in Iran is more significant than ethnic tensions, rooted in a paradox of a theocratic regime promoting higher education while facing increasing opposition from an educated populace [3][5]. - The Iranian regime has cultivated a large opposition through its educational policies, inadvertently creating a well-informed citizenry that questions the authority of the clerical leadership [5][16]. Group 2: Education and Technology - Iran has experienced a rapid expansion in higher education, with enrollment rates rising from under 10% before the 1979 revolution to over 60% in recent years, particularly among women [3][4]. - The regime's focus on developing scientific education is seen as a necessity for national strength, especially in the face of external threats and sanctions [8][10]. - The need for technological advancement has been exacerbated by long-standing Western sanctions, which have limited access to critical technologies and forced Iran to pursue self-sufficiency in technology [9][10]. Group 3: Economic Challenges - Economic sanctions have severely impacted Iran's oil exports, which plummeted from 2.5 million barrels per day to 1 million barrels per day, leading to a precarious fiscal situation [24]. - The Iranian economy has faced significant contraction, with GDP shrinking by 6.0% in 2018 and 6.8% in 2019, alongside persistent inflation rates between 30% and 50% [22][24]. - The economic decline has fueled public discontent, as the population struggles with high inflation and a depreciating currency, leading to a loss of faith in the ruling authorities [24][25]. Group 4: Social Media and Public Sentiment - The rise of social media has amplified public dissent against the clerical regime, allowing citizens to express their frustrations and challenge the authority of the ruling class [25][26]. - The Iranian government has struggled to control social media, which has become a platform for organizing and voicing opposition, particularly among women [27][28]. - The government has reluctantly allowed some degree of social media freedom to facilitate economic connections with the diaspora, which has become a vital source of income for many Iranians [29][30]. Group 5: Military and External Relations - Iran's military strategy has been influenced by its perception of external threats, leading to aggressive posturing and military actions in response to perceived provocations from Israel and the U.S. [31][32]. - The assassination of key military figures has highlighted internal vulnerabilities and the challenges faced by the Iranian regime in maintaining control [17][18]. - The ongoing conflict with Israel and the U.S. reflects the broader geopolitical tensions in the region, complicating Iran's efforts to stabilize its internal situation [20][21].