以色列大规模空袭伊朗后油价飙升，可能再次引发通胀

Group 1 - Despite the implementation of tariffs by President Donald Trump, inflation shows signs of cooling, but ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, particularly Israel's attacks on Iran, pose risks to oil prices and inflation, potentially hindering the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates [1][3] - Oil prices surged approximately 6% on Friday, with West Texas Intermediate reaching $72.11 per barrel and Brent crude at $73.46 per barrel, following Israel's airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities [1] - The recent consumer and producer price index data released earlier in the week was below expectations, raising hopes for greater interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year, but these hopes diminished after the escalation of conflict [1][2] Group 2 - Iran has retaliated with drone strikes and has canceled new talks with U.S. officials regarding sanctions relief in exchange for concessions on its nuclear program, indicating a potential for prolonged conflict in the region [2] - Analysts suggest that if Israel were to target Iran's oil production and export facilities or if Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could spike by $20 per barrel or more, significantly impacting inflation [3] - A rise in oil prices to between $80 and $100 per barrel could increase inflation rates in developed markets by 1.0 percentage point, leading to cautious monetary policy from central banks, including the Federal Reserve [3]