玻璃：上中游降价去库，周产量降0.61%

Core Viewpoint - The glass market is experiencing downward pressure due to supply-side changes and weak demand, leading to price reductions and inventory management challenges [1] Supply Side Summary - The float glass industry operating rate has decreased to 75.42%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous week, marking a continuous decline for two weeks [1] - Capacity utilization has dropped to 77.48%, a decrease of 0.66% [1] - Daily production has fallen to 155,700 tons, down 0.7%, with weekly production at 1,091,200 tons, a decrease of 0.61% week-on-week and an 8.69% year-on-year decline, nearing a three-and-a-half-month low [1] Demand Side Summary - The spot market demand remains weak, with downstream enterprises being cautious in procurement due to factors like rainfall, leading to price declines in multiple regions [1] - The arrival of the rainy season has increased inventory pressure on glass manufacturers, potentially prompting further price reductions for sales [1] Inventory Situation - The total inventory of sample enterprises in the float glass industry stands at 69.685 million heavy boxes, a slight decrease of 69,000 heavy boxes or 0.10% month-on-month, but a year-on-year increase of 19.86% [1] - The inventory days are at 30.8 days, down 0.5 days from the previous period, with inventory reductions noted in North and East China, while other regions saw increases [1] Cost and Profitability - The costs of glass production from petroleum coke, coal, and natural gas are 1,158, 1,026, and 1,473 yuan/ton respectively, with month-on-month changes of +12, +3, and -5 yuan/ton [1] - Production profits for these methods are -128.5, 80.7, and -182.8 yuan/ton respectively, with month-on-month changes of -17.1, -10.2, and -12.2 yuan/ton [1] Macro Environment - Ongoing geopolitical risks from the conflict in the Middle East are suppressing market sentiment [1] - In May, domestic social financing increased while credit decreased, indicating a divergence, with PPI and real estate completion rates showing larger declines, exacerbating industrial deflation and mid-term demand shrinkage for glass [1] Short-term Outlook - Short-term trends indicate price reductions and inventory management in the glass upstream and midstream sectors, with downstream orders remaining low and spot prices adjusting downward [1] - Coal production lines are profitable, but large-scale cold repairs are unlikely, leading to low operating levels and daily melting capacity fluctuations [1] - Current glass prices are below coal production costs, approaching losses across the entire industry chain, necessitating a wait for spot price reduction expectations to materialize [1] - Although glass valuations are relatively low, the short-term fundamentals and cost support are weak, with no clear drivers, leading to fluctuations based on macro sentiment and frequent capital movements [1] - Continuous low prices may raise concerns about the potential increase in cold repair expectations [1] - Technically, attention should be paid to the integer resistance levels of 1,000 and the 10-day moving average [1]