美联储降息预期生变，全球投资者抢抓时间窗口存高息美元

Group 1 - The outlook for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has become more uncertain due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, leading to increased demand for risk-free dollar deposits [1][5] - The current six-month dollar deposit rate remains at 3.7%, with significant interest from clients, indicating a shift towards dollar asset allocation amid geopolitical tensions [1][7] - Following the announcement of favorable U.S. CPI data, there was an initial expectation for a rate cut, but the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict has led to a reassessment of inflation risks and delayed rate cut predictions [2][4][5] Group 2 - The recent CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4% in May, which was below market expectations, prompting increased bets on potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - The conflict in the Middle East has raised concerns about inflation due to rising oil prices, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates [5][6] - Analysts predict that if oil prices rise significantly, it could lead to a further increase in U.S. inflation rates, potentially delaying any interest rate cuts until later in the year [6][5] Group 3 - Investors are increasingly seeking dollar deposits as a safe haven amid global economic uncertainties, with many considering opening offshore accounts to take advantage of higher dollar deposit rates [7][8] - The demand for dollar deposits is driven by the relatively higher interest rates in the U.S. compared to other major economies, where rates remain low or negative [9] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic conditions are expected to sustain the attractiveness of dollar assets, despite a general trend of declining deposit rates [8][9]