2025年下半年全球市场展望：沉浮之间

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy in the second half of 2025 is characterized by "weak reality, strong shocks, and high volatility," with significant uncertainty and concerns about recession [1][8] - The U.S. economy shows signs of weakening core growth, with consumer spending support for GDP diminishing and inflation pressures re-emerging, potentially pushing CPI back to 3% by mid-year [2][26][32] - European economic improvement is limited, with weak domestic demand despite temporary boosts from fiscal deficits, and the European Central Bank expected to maintain a loose monetary policy with 1-2 rate cuts [2][9] - Japan's economy is under pressure from high inflation, with wage growth offset by rising prices, and a potential interest rate hike expected by the end of 2025 [2][9] Major Economies - The U.S. faces multiple pressures including consumption, inflation, and employment challenges, with rising fiscal deficit risks and delayed interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [3][12] - U.S.-China trade relations are undergoing adjustments, with some tariffs being suspended, but structural issues remain unresolved, leading to ongoing tensions in non-tariff areas [3][4] - The overall economic landscape is marked by a fragile balance, with the potential for a weak recovery amid high volatility [8] Asset Markets - Global asset markets are expected to experience high volatility in the second half of 2025, with the S&P 500 potentially testing previous highs around 6150 points, but facing risks from inflation and trade negotiations [4][10] - U.S. Treasury yields are projected to remain elevated, fluctuating between 4.2% and 4.7%, with 4.5% acting as a critical support and resistance level [4][10] - The Japanese market is anticipated to fluctuate between 36,000 and 40,000 points, influenced by currency volatility and persistent inflation [4][10] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to continue their upward trend, presenting ongoing investment opportunities [4][10] Market Logic - The core market logic revolves around the interplay between policy expectations and economic realities, with high uncertainty stemming from U.S. fiscal and trade policies [5][8] - The weakening dollar may lead to capital inflows into emerging markets, enhancing the attractiveness of emerging market equities [5][8] - Investors are advised to navigate the complexities of the economic landscape by understanding policy directions and identifying structural opportunities amid volatility [5][8]