鲍威尔本周难成“救世主”，美股下半年将陷入震荡？

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is surrounded by significant uncertainty regarding the U.S. economy, inflation, and interest rate paths, which may lead to increased volatility in the stock market for the remainder of the year [1] Economic Outlook - Despite expectations that trade conflicts will drive inflation higher, the mild consumer and producer price data from May did not support this trend [1] - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, caused a 14% spike in U.S. crude oil futures, raising concerns about inflationary pressures in the bond market [1] - The uncertainty surrounding inflation and the Federal Reserve's response is a key driver of the short-term economic and market outlook [1][2] Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is expected to provide updated economic and interest rate forecasts, but analysts predict that Chairman Powell will remain vague, emphasizing the need for clearer signals before adjusting rates [2] - There is a warning that the Fed may reduce its 2025 rate cut expectations from two to one [2] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index has seen significant fluctuations, with a 19% drop from February to April followed by a nearly 20% rebound in June, indicating that investors may be more resilient to policy surprises [3] - Observers believe that new catalysts, such as a rebound in earnings trends, are necessary for the S&P 500 to reach new highs [2] Investment Strategies - The current environment of economic policy uncertainty is prompting investment strategies focused on diversification, with suggestions to increase non-dollar assets or cash if heavily invested in U.S. equities [2] - The "economic policy uncertainty index" reached a record high in June, indicating that consumers may reduce spending and businesses may cut investments, potentially leading to a recession [2]