油价还会不会“爆”？关键看这些“没发生的事”！

Group 1 - The core point of the articles emphasizes the importance of monitoring the oil supply situation amidst escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, noting that no oil supply has been lost so far, which aligns with the interests of all parties involved [1][2] - Brent crude oil prices surged by 7% on June 13, reaching a five-month high, following Israeli airstrikes that killed several Iranian commanders and damaged nuclear facilities [1] - The physical oil price reaction in the Middle East was more measured compared to the paper market, with Dubai crude's physical price rising by 5.8% to $71.03 per barrel, indicating that traders and refiners are less concerned about supply disruptions than paper market investors [1][2] Group 2 - The critical factor for the oil market is whether Iran's oil production and export infrastructure will be attacked and the realistic risk of Iran attempting to block the Strait of Hormuz, which carries up to 20 million barrels of oil daily, accounting for about one-fifth of global consumption [2] - Historically, the Strait of Hormuz has never been blocked despite past conflicts, suggesting that Iran may prefer to maintain the perception of risk to keep oil prices elevated without taking direct action [2][3] - If Iran were to attempt to close the Strait, it would likely lead to significant geopolitical consequences, including potential U.S. intervention to keep the waterway open, while Israel's attacks are currently limited to Iranian energy infrastructure without disrupting oil production and exports [3]