Netflix(US:NFLX) 智通财经网·2025-06-16 09:06Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains a "neutral" rating for Netflix (NFLX.US) with a target price of $1,220, citing strong content library and advertising growth potential as long-term advantages, but short-term stock price reflects optimistic expectations, necessitating attention to content performance and monetization progress in the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Company Performance and Projections - Netflix's content lineup for the second half of 2025 is described as one of the strongest ever, featuring returns of popular series such as "Squid Game" Season 3, "Wednesday" Season 2, and "Stranger Things" Season 5, along with new shows and sports live content, expected to significantly boost user growth and engagement [1] - The company is projected to add 4.5 million net new users in Q2, including 750,000 in North America, and a total of 25.5 million net new users for the entire year of 2025 [1] Group 2: Advertising Business Insights - Netflix's ad-supported subscription tier currently has approximately 94 million monthly active users (MAU), which could reach 170 million when including non-profile viewers, with users in the ad tier watching an average of 41 hours per month, comparable to ad-free standard tier users [2] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that by the end of 2025, ad tier users will exceed 60 million, corresponding to about 140 million MAU, with advertising revenue (excluding subscriptions) expected to double to $3 billion [2] Group 3: Financial Guidance and Expectations - Netflix maintains its revenue guidance for 2025 at $43.5 to $44.5 billion, with an operating margin of 29% and free cash flow of $8 billion, but actual revenue performance may exceed the midpoint due to a weaker dollar [2] - Based on strong content in the second half, recent price increases, advertising business growth, and favorable exchange rates, investor expectations for 2025 guidance may be raised, potentially extending into 2026-2027 [2] - The forecast for Netflix's 2025 revenue is $44.4 billion, a 15% year-over-year increase, with an operating margin improvement to 29.6%, content cash spending of $17.7 billion, and free cash flow expected to reach $8.4 billion, a 21% increase [2]