以色列突袭伊朗，日本慌了？

Core Viewpoint - The recent Israeli airstrikes on Iran have raised significant concerns for oil-importing countries, particularly Japan, which heavily relies on Middle Eastern oil imports. The situation could lead to increased oil prices and potential economic repercussions for these nations [1][3][4]. Group 1: Impact on Oil Prices - Israeli attacks on Iranian oil facilities could push Brent crude oil prices up to $80 per barrel if tensions escalate [5]. - A potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran could threaten global oil supply, leading to prices soaring to $120 per barrel [6]. - If the situation continues to deteriorate, Brent crude prices could exceed the historical peak of nearly $150 per barrel by the end of 2025 [7]. Group 2: Dependency on Middle Eastern Oil - Japan's oil imports are heavily reliant on the Middle East, with 95% of its crude oil coming from this region, especially after the reduction of Russian oil imports due to sanctions [3][10]. - China's oil dependency is also significant, with over 70% of its crude oil sourced from abroad, making it vulnerable to Middle Eastern instability [10]. Group 3: Economic Consequences - The reliance on foreign oil can lead to imported inflation, increasing costs of living and economic operational expenses, reminiscent of the oil embargo in the 1970s that caused stagflation in Western countries [11]. - Countries dependent on oil imports must diversify their sources to mitigate risks associated with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [12][15]. Group 4: Energy Transition Strategies - Developing renewable energy sources is a strategic approach to reduce dependency on oil and enhance energy security [16]. - China has made progress in this area, promoting electric vehicles and transitioning its energy structure, which serves as a buffer against potential energy crises [17].