油价飙升点燃通胀恐慌，美债抛压潮或卷土重来

Group 1 - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to rising oil prices, raising inflation concerns and putting pressure on the US and European bond markets [1][8] - The US 2-year Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points to 3.96%, while the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 3 basis points to 4.43%, underperforming compared to German bonds [2][5] - The yield curve for US Treasuries has steepened, indicating market expectations of higher future inflation and interest rates, with the 2-year yield increasing by 8 basis points since last Thursday, lower than the increase in the 10-year yield [5][6] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the US Treasury yield curve may continue to steepen due to increased geopolitical uncertainty, which could raise future military spending and make inflation more persistent if oil prices remain high [6][8] - Since the escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran, the benchmark US Treasury yield has risen by 9 basis points, reflecting historical patterns where similar conflicts have led to increased yields [7] - Investors are facing dual risks: inflation concerns stemming from trade tensions and worsening US debt issues, which may require higher risk premiums for holding US Treasuries, leading to sustained upward pressure on yields [8]