《美联储降息预期升温：人币汇率“破7”概率大，出口企业该“锁汇”还是“观望”？》

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is influencing global capital markets and the Chinese yuan's exchange rate, with a significant probability of the yuan breaking the 7 mark [1][2] - The probability of the yuan breaking the 7 mark is assessed at around 50% in the short term, with potential fluctuations between 6.9 and 7.2 [2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is expected to weaken the dollar, potentially leading to the dollar-yuan exchange rate dropping to the 6.9-7.0 range if a cumulative cut of 100 basis points occurs [4] Group 2 - Factors supporting the yuan breaking the 7 mark include the U.S. economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions, while factors that may prevent it include China's economic resilience and policy tools available to the central bank [4] - The current interest rate differential between China and the U.S. is -2.57%, which may narrow to -1.5% if the Fed cuts rates while China maintains its rates, alleviating depreciation pressure on the yuan [4] - Chinese exports have shown resilience, with a 9.3% growth in exports to Belt and Road countries in 2024, indicating a strong economic foundation [4] Group 3 - Export companies are advised to consider their decision-making based on order cycles and product value, with different strategies for short-term low-value products versus long-term high-value products [3][5] - Recommendations for companies include a phased approach to locking in exchange rates, with a suggestion to lock 50%-70% of the order value while remaining flexible for the rest [5] - Companies are encouraged to adopt proactive currency management strategies, such as contract design for exchange rate adjustments and shortening payment cycles to mitigate exposure [7]