以伊冲突的最坏情况，油价站上200美元？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, are causing significant uncertainty in the global energy market, with concerns over potential oil supply disruptions [1] - Macquarie's commodity strategist Marcus Garvey warns that in an extreme scenario where Iranian oil supply is completely cut off and the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices could exceed $200 per barrel, compared to the current price around $70 [1][2] - Historical experiences indicate that the market is highly sensitive to large-scale disruptions in oil supply, leading to dramatic price reactions [2] Group 2 - Macquarie's analysis suggests that the current market reflects a moderate increase in risk premium, with Brent crude oil prices potentially rising to over $80 per barrel in the short term, which is $10 higher than recent levels [4] - The market outlook may diverge in the coming weeks; if tensions ease, oil prices may return to fundamentals, while further attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure could push prices towards $100 or higher [4] - Recent attacks on Iranian oil facilities by Israel have already impacted market sentiment, with WTI crude oil experiencing a volatile trading session [4]