连美债都要看日本“脸色”，日债正成为全球市场风向标！

Core Insights - The rise in Japanese 10-year government bond yields has significant spillover effects on global fixed income markets, causing synchronized volatility in U.S. and German bonds [1][2] - The sensitivity of U.S. Treasury yields to changes in Japanese bond yields has increased sharply since the Bank of Japan began loosening its yield curve control in 2022 [1][2] - Japan's bond market, valued at $7.8 trillion, is experiencing its highest volatility in over two decades, impacting global bond investors [1][2] Group 1 - The correlation between U.S. and Japanese bond yields has reached a five-year high, particularly in the 10 to 30-year yield spread [1] - Japanese government bonds account for 16.7% of the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index, making their performance critical for global bond investors [2] - The recent volatility in Japanese bonds is reshaping global bond trading dynamics, with investors closely monitoring Tokyo's market movements [2] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan is reducing its bond holdings at a record pace, with a reduction of ¥6.18 trillion ($4.3 billion) in the first quarter of this year, the largest drop since data collection began in 1996 [3][4] - The volatility is concentrated in ultra-long bonds, with significant increases in yields for 20 and 30-year bonds following a lackluster auction [4] - Concerns over persistent inflation are leading to a global aversion to ultra-long bonds, with Japan becoming a focal point for these concerns [4][5] Group 3 - The market is facing upward pressure on yields due to concerns over U.S. fiscal deficits exacerbated by the Trump administration's tax cuts [5] - There is no evidence that the 30-year yield has peaked, and further increases in yields are anticipated as inflation remains stubbornly high [5] - The global bond market is entering a new financial ecosystem where movements in Tokyo can significantly impact trading in New York [5]