Iran Conflict Fuels Fertilizer Stocks' Bullish Setup

Market Overview - The conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a risk-off response in markets, with stock indexes like NASDAQ-100 and S&P 500 leveling off and oil prices rising over 6% in the past week [1][2] - The fertilizer industry is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity due to its critical role in global food supply and Iran's position as the eleventh-largest exporter of fertilizers [2][3] Impact of Conflict on Fertilizer Industry - A potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz would not only affect oil prices but also natural gas prices, halting Iranian fertilizer exports and creating bottlenecks in natural gas production, which are essential for manufacturing key fertilizer chemicals [3] - This situation presents profit opportunities for companies like CF Industries Inc., The Mosaic Co., and Nutrien Ltd. [3] Nutrien Stock Analysis - Nutrien's stock is currently trading at a 52-week high, with a market capitalization of $42 billion, nearly four times that of its peers [5][6] - The 12-month stock price forecast for Nutrien is $61.44, indicating a potential downside of 2.99% from the current price of $63.33 [4] - Nutrien offers a dividend payout of $2.18 per share, translating to an annualized yield of up to 3.5% [7] CF Industries Stock Analysis - CF Industries has a 12-month stock price forecast of $90.21, with a downside of 11.94% from the current price of $102.44 [9] - Institutional interest is growing, with Inspire Investing building a $1.1 million stake in CF Industries, indicating potential for further capital inflow [10] Mosaic Stock Analysis - Mosaic stock is currently trading at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.9x, significantly lower than the materials sector average of 5.4x, presenting a compelling investment opportunity [14] - The 12-month stock price forecast for Mosaic is $34.58, with a downside of 4.27% from the current price of $36.13 [13] - Recent analyst ratings include an Outperform from Scotiabank and an Overweight from Barclays, with a target price of up to $40 per share [15][16]