油价短期反弹难敌结构性利空 能源股续演疲软走势

Group 1 - The recent conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a rebound in international oil prices, nearly returning to levels prior to the April 2 "Liberation Day Tariff" announcement, but energy stocks have not strengthened correspondingly, indicating that the market views this conflict as a short-term disturbance [1] - As of now, the benchmark Brent crude oil price is approximately $73.25 per barrel, only 2% lower than before the tariff announcement on April 2, when President Trump announced additional "reciprocal tariffs" that caused a significant drop in oil prices [1] - The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE.US) has declined by 7% since April 2, while Halliburton (HAL.US), a leading oilfield services company, has seen a 10% drop in its stock price during the same period, reflecting market skepticism about the sustainability of the current price surge [1] Group 2 - The expectation of a "short-term conflict" is also reflected in the oil futures curve, where near-term crude oil prices are higher than long-term contracts, indicating that the market does not believe high oil prices will last long [2] - Analysts predict an oversupply of crude oil in the second half of the year, which could further depress prices, leading oil companies to reduce the number of drilling rigs [2] - According to Baker Hughes data, the number of active oil rigs in the U.S. has decreased by 10% over the past year, and it is unlikely that companies that have already withdrawn from drilling will resume operations in the short term [2]