螺纹钢延续低位震荡

Core Viewpoint - The black metal market sentiment has improved due to the stabilization and rebound of coking coal prices and positive developments in China-U.S. trade negotiations, leading to a low recovery in rebar futures prices, which briefly surpassed 3000 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of nearly 3% [1] Group 1: Demand Dynamics - Demand for rebar is weakening, with high-frequency demand indicators continuing to decline. As of June 13, the weekly apparent demand for rebar was 2.1998 million tons, a decrease of 90,400 tons week-on-week, marking a continuous decline and the lowest level in recent years, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.14% [2] - The construction steel market remains under pressure, with demand continuing to show a sluggish trend. The market has entered a traditional off-season, with inventory increasing in southern China due to rainfall, and the eastern region also experiencing a rainy season, making it difficult for demand to recover [3] Group 2: Supply Conditions - Rebar supply is also contracting, with the latest weekly production at 2.0757 million tons, a decrease of 108,900 tons week-on-week, and a year-on-year decline of 10.69%. Both long and short process steel mills have seen production declines [4] - The short process steel mills are operating at low levels due to losses, with production at 250,000 tons, while long process steel mills have reduced production to 1.8257 million tons, reflecting a cumulative decline of 200,300 tons over three weeks [4] Group 3: Inventory Trends - In the context of weak supply and demand, rebar inventory continues to decrease, with a total inventory of 5.5808 million tons as of June 13, a week-on-week decrease of 124,100 tons, significantly lower than the same period last year, with a year-on-year decline of 28.53% [5] - However, the rate of inventory decline has narrowed, and in some regions, social inventory has begun to accumulate, indicating a potential turning point in inventory dynamics [5]