中东杀红眼，黄金价格却像坐过山车，央行政策与战火交织，市场下一步怎么走？

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have been influenced by geopolitical tensions and central bank meetings, creating uncertainty in the market [1][3][10]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Gold prices surged to $3446 last Friday, a two-month high, but dropped to around $3415 on Monday [1]. - Analysts indicate that the key support level for gold is at $3385; if it falls below this, a rebound may occur, while a rise above could limit opportunities [7]. - Current market sentiment is cautious, with gold prices hovering around $3400, indicating potential for continued volatility [10]. Group 2: Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates during its upcoming meeting, but market focus is on Chairman Powell's statements regarding future rate cuts [3][10]. - The Bank of Japan is also anticipated to keep rates unchanged due to high uncertainty and potential impacts from U.S. trade policies [5]. - Market speculation suggests a 95% probability of a rate cut in September, but conflicting economic data complicates investor decisions [10]. Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, with military actions leading to casualties, which could influence gold prices depending on the outcome of potential peace negotiations [5][8]. - Recent violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, resulting in over 300 deaths, highlights the growing global security risks, although its direct impact on gold is limited [7][10]. - The overall increase in global instability is likely to heighten demand for safe-haven assets like gold [10].