供应端复产叠加下游降负 PTA或逐步转向累库格局

Group 1 - PTA prices have slightly decreased since mid-May due to weakening fundamentals, characterized by supply recovery and reduced downstream polyester production [2] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a significant increase in international oil prices, with risks of losing 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian oil supply [3] - The supply side of PTA has seen a notable recovery in operating rates, reaching approximately 83% as of June 13, indicating a clear trend of increasing supply [4] Group 2 - Demand for PTA is currently weak, with polyester production rates declining to around 90.9%, primarily due to reduced output in bottle-grade and short-fiber segments [4] - The weaving sector is also facing challenges, with weaving operating rates dropping to 68% and texturing rates to 80%, as companies deal with high raw material costs and sluggish sales [4] - Overall, while oil prices are strong and may push PTA prices up, the weakening fundamentals suggest limited price increases, with a potential shift from inventory depletion to accumulation [5]