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高盛预警:中东战火加剧供应中断担忧 布油或升破90美元
Goldman SachsGoldman Sachs(US:GS) 智通财经网·2025-06-17 01:08

Group 1 - Recent escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran has raised concerns about potential disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supply, leading to a surge in oil prices [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts Brent crude oil prices could rise above $90 per barrel in the near term due to increased geopolitical risk premium [1] - Despite the heightened geopolitical risks, Goldman Sachs maintains that oil supply from the Middle East is unlikely to be interrupted, forecasting strong supply growth outside of US shale oil [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs outlines a scenario where damage to Iran's export infrastructure could reduce its oil supply by 1.75 million barrels per day within six months, with a gradual recovery thereafter [1] - In this scenario, if OPEC+ core producers compensate for half of Iran's peak supply shortfall, Brent crude prices could peak slightly above $90 per barrel, but are expected to decline to $60 per barrel by 2026 as Iranian supply recovers [1] - In extreme tail scenarios, oil prices could rise even faster due to broader regional oil production or shipping disruptions [1][2] Group 3 - The likelihood of trade disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz appears low, but investors and policymakers remain vigilant due to the potential inability of OPEC+ core producers to deploy spare capacity [2] - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for nearly one-fifth of global oil flow [2] - In extreme long-term disruption scenarios, Goldman Sachs estimates oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel [2]