PTA&PX、聚酯：6月13日行情及短期走势分析

Core Insights - PX and PTA prices showed upward trends on June 13, with PX main contract closing at 6780.0 CNY/ton, up 3.73%, and PTA main contract closing at 4782.0 CNY/ton, up 3.51% [1] - The cost side is supported by rising crude oil prices, with Brent crude closing at 70.34 USD/barrel and WTI at 68.86 USD/barrel [1] - The market is experiencing a tug-of-war between cost-driven support and weakening demand, particularly in the polyester sector [1] PX Market Summary - PX prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the short term, supported by crude oil price fluctuations [1] - Despite a widening basis indicating a loose supply expectation, low inventory levels and seasonal demand expectations may drive PX processing fees upward [1] - The processing fee recovery may push prices higher, despite current supply expectations [1] PTA Market Summary - PTA price increase potential is limited due to marginally weakening downstream polyester demand, creating negative feedback [1] - The short-term market is characterized by a struggle between cost support from crude oil and PX, and price suppression from high polyester inventory and weak transactions [1] - If demand does not improve seasonally, there may be a negative feedback loop transmitted from the polyester sector [1] Polyester Market Summary - The main contract for short fibers closed at 6530.0 CNY/ton, up 2.64%, with spot prices in East China at 6620.0 CNY/ton, up 120.0 CNY/ton [1] - The transaction volume in the light textile city decreased from 816.6 million meters on June 3 to 705.47 million meters on June 13, a decline of 13.6% [1] - Polyester short fiber inventory days slightly decreased to 8.12 days, while filament inventory remains high, suppressing companies' willingness to replenish stocks [1]