6.16纯碱日评：供需宽松 纯碱延续弱势

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market continues to operate under weak conditions, with prices remaining stable or declining slightly across various regions, reflecting a lack of demand and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers [2][3]. Price Analysis - As of June 16, 2023, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1290-1380 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1300-1440 CNY/ton. In East China, light soda ash is priced at 1240-1490 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash at 1320-1420 CNY/ton [2]. - The light soda ash price index on June 16 is 1252.86, down by 10 points or -0.79% from the previous working day. The heavy soda ash price index is 1297.14, down by 1.43 points or -0.11% [3]. Market Dynamics - The overall supply in the industry remains high, with companies like Huachang Chemical returning to normal operations. However, the demand side is weak, with downstream buyers adopting a cautious purchasing strategy, preferring lower-priced sources [2]. - The main futures contract for soda ash (SA2509) opened at 1152 CNY/ton and closed at 1174 CNY/ton on June 16, showing an intraday increase of 0.86%. The total open interest decreased by 59,463 contracts [5]. Future Outlook - The soda ash industry is experiencing a gradual increase in operating rates, leading to further supply expansion. However, persistent weak demand from downstream sectors is causing inventory levels to rise [6]. - In the context of a continuously loose supply-demand balance, soda ash prices are expected to maintain a low and fluctuating trend, with potential for slight declines in certain regions [6].