关税大棒下的印度困局：弃俄武器退金砖，美国毒药咽不咽？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is pressuring India to abandon Russian arms purchases and exit the BRICS organization in exchange for significant tariff reductions, presenting a strategic dilemma for India [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Pressure on India - U.S. Commerce Secretary made it clear that purchasing Russian weapons would anger the U.S., framing it as a transaction where India must forgo Russian military contracts to ease tariff burdens [3]. - India's military heavily relies on Russian equipment, with 68% of its air force and 90% of its army tanks being Russian-made, making the transition to U.S. systems challenging [3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The imposition of a 26% tariff by the U.S. led to a 20% drop in India's seafood exports, highlighting the economic stakes involved in the negotiations [3]. - India's GDP was negatively impacted by 0.8% due to U.S. tariffs, which is more severe than the effects of the pandemic [7]. Group 3: Strategic Consequences - Exiting BRICS could isolate India internationally, as it would lose support from emerging economies while facing disdain from Western nations [5]. - The U.S. is leveraging its position to control India's military supply chain, raising concerns about India's strategic autonomy in defense matters [5][7]. Group 4: Manufacturing Challenges - India's manufacturing sector has seen a decline from 16% to 14% of GDP, with foreign companies preferring to invest in China due to lower labor efficiency in India [7]. - The ongoing tariff situation creates a cycle that hampers India's manufacturing growth and economic stability [7].