蓝莓外汇BBMarkets：日本央行加息窗口开启？日元升值路径存疑

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing stagnation in US-Japan trade negotiations and fluctuating tariff policies are creating dual constraints on the Bank of Japan's policy adjustments [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The rise in Brent crude oil prices, surpassing $85 per barrel due to escalating Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts, poses significant cost pressures on Japan's economy, which relies on oil imports for over 90% of its needs [1] - The combined effects of energy-induced inflation and deteriorating trade conditions are reshaping the policy framework for the Bank of Japan [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Policy Expectations - There remains potential for a policy shift from the Bank of Japan within the year, despite the core CPI growth rate falling to 3.2% in April [3] - Continuous wage growth and persistent inflation in the service sector could serve as potential upward pressures on policy [3] - If the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates after the September meeting, the narrowing interest rate differential between the US and Japan may compel the Bank of Japan to reassess the sustainability of its yield curve control policy [3] Group 3: Foreign Exchange Strategy - A structural appreciation trend for the yen requires overcoming three key resistances: narrowing US-Japan interest rate differentials, improvement in Japan's current account, and repatriation of overseas capital [3] - The current 10-year US-Japan government bond yield differential remains high at 180 basis points, with the annualized cost of holding yen at approximately 1.2%, making speculative long positions less attractive [3] - From a risk-hedging perspective, when the VIX index exceeds 25, the yen's hedging coefficient against the S&P 500 can reach 0.63, providing unique risk mitigation value for diversified asset portfolios [3] Group 4: Policy Dynamics - The pivotal point for policy will be the guidance from the Federal Reserve's dot plot in September [4] - If the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance, the Bank of Japan may initiate a "preemptive rate hike" in October, accelerating the yen's appreciation process [4] - In the current volatile market environment, a gradual allocation strategy rather than a one-time investment may be a more effective response to policy uncertainties [4]